They see wealth inequality in a reduced economy leading to possible mass social disorder and spreading mental health challenges as people sink into despair.
In the report’s words: “In 2040, upward social mobility is almost unheard of in Canada. Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts.”
The prognostications are dire, and it’s tempting to dismiss them as exaggerations from pessimistic researchers rather than accept the possibility of such a bleak future. In reading the report, it’s evident that the prophecies are based on visible socioeconomic trends. The wealth gap is quickly widening while frustrated young Canadians are abandoning hope of home ownership or prosperity in their future.
The top two parties in contention for the leadership of Canada aren’t proposing the kind of radical policy changes required to head off the grim conjectures of Policy Horizons. To turn Canada from its trajectory, the government must shrink and deregulate to draw both human capital and foreign investment into the nation. The government must take on trade unions, crony capitalists, and environmental activists to facilitate broad economic development.
Those sorts of policy proposals, however, send chills down the spines of political strategists who want anything but conflict with the aforementioned groups during an election campaign. So we are left hoping that whoever forms the next government has a hidden agenda of reform, which will be quickly implemented upon assuming power.
Housing is a most basic need. Especially in a climate as harsh as Canada. Despite years of promises and countless government-sponsored programs, home ownership remains out of reach for a growing number of Canadians, while low housing supplies lead to rising rent. The report predicts existing homeowners could become future aristocrats as they expand property holdings to hand down to their children, while an underclass locked in the world of renting can’t get ahead. Canada could devolve into a class-based society with “social siloing,” separating citizens based on their economic standing.
Social division and a shrinking economy with wealth concentrated in the hands of a smaller number of people could start a chain reaction as skilled and ambitious people emigrate to jurisdictions offering better opportunities for upward social mobility. If younger people flee, the social systems caring for the older population will become further strained. The demographic balance of the nation could tilt, leaving older Canadians cash-rich but resource-poor due to overburdened health and senior care resources.
Those remaining in the country could find themselves seeking alternative ways to meet their needs. People could form housing, health, and food production cooperatives to make ends meet. While that may be effective, it also would lead to a form of tribalism and social introversion for large groups of people. These groups would be distanced from government influence and likely would harbour strong distrust of state institutions. They could become hubs of dangerous discontent.
People may take out their ire upon scapegoats such as immigrants or other identifiable groups if they aren’t blaming the government itself. The potential for social conflicts will grow and could blossom into general violence.
While the world envisioned within the report may hold appeal for hardcore ideological libertarians, it would be a rough and miserable place in reality.
Almost all the frightening scenarios packed within the report are already happening. It’s just a matter of degree. If current trends continue, the predictions could become reality in short order.
Ironically, this is one of the few times we can hope the parties vying to run in the election are being disingenuous as they offer grander versions of the current government path. Perhaps they understand the gravity of the situation and the report, but don’t feel they can effectively campaign on the solutions.
Just this once, let’s hope they are blowing smoke while they maintain a hidden agenda of reform. Because if they stay on the current trajectory, our future looks dark indeed.
