The Liberal Party of Canada appears to be on the brink of a federal electoral blowout unlike any since the 1993 general election that took the Progressive Conservatives from a majority government down to a paltry two seats in the House of Commons. Some projections predict the Liberals would win only six seats if a general election were to be held today.
Canadians are ready for federal change, and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) will likely win a strong, majority mandate to govern whenever the next election may be called.
There is another political movement on the rise in Canada that parallels the trend of 1993, and that is Quebec separatism. Within two years of winning his majority government, Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien faced a national unity crisis as Quebec came within just 1 percent of leaving Canada in a referendum. People underestimated the will among Quebecers to form an independent nation, and secession came within a whisker of happening.
Part of why separatism spiked in Quebec was having a strong federal platform to promote the cause. In 1993, the Bloc Québécois became the official opposition in the House of Commons. That led to Quebec grievances dominating the federal agenda and the national news, which helped build separatist support in Quebec. Today, the Bloc looks likely to win enough seats in the next election to form the official opposition again. Questions in the House of Commons, along with opposition motions, will predominantly focus on Quebec’s interests and highlight the perceived indignities the Confederation offers Quebec. It will inflame regional angst in every province.
Provincially, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is dominating the polls in Quebec with an overtly separatist platform. The PQ has promised to hold another referendum on secession if they win the next election in 2026. They would only make such a promise if they felt confident a referendum would be successful.
Quebec secessionists learned a lesson in 1995. They vowed not to hold another secession referendum until winning conditions for independence presented themselves. Those conditions are here now.
Quebec’s governments have slowly but surely been working to change the demographic makeup of its province and increase independence sentiment. Discriminatory language policies and attacks on free religious displays haven’t just been acts of myopic bigotry. It has all been part of a strategy to ensure most of the province speaks French and holds allegiance to Quebec rather than to any nation.
In 1995 during the Quebec referendum campaign, delegations left the West in a show of support and campaigned asking Quebecers not to vote to leave. It’s hard to imagine a show of support for Quebec emerging from the West in a future referendum. Westerners today are often indifferent to Quebec’s aspirations at best, and hostile to Quebec at worst. There may be movements from the West designed to inflame separatism in Quebec if another referendum is held, and it would surely galvanize support among Quebec’s independence supporters.
Assuming Pierre Poilievre becomes Canada’s next prime minister, while he may have a massive majority government, he will not have an easy path ahead of him. Not only will he have a deficit dragon to slay and a budding trade war with the United States, but he could also be facing another Quebec independence referendum.
Quebec’s separatism movement never went away. It has only been dormant while political operators have been patiently working to create winning referendum conditions.
History appears to be ready to repeat itself politically though the names of the heads of the parties have changed.
Something else that may change is the outcome of another referendum in Quebec if it’s held. Poilievre has a difficult national balancing act ahead of him, as he will have to try to defuse separatist sentiment in Quebec while remaining true to his support base in Western Canada.
