Cory Morgan: Canada’s Premiers Should Present a Unified Front in the Face of US Tariff Threat

Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to reporters as Canada's premiers hold a press conference to close the Council of the Federation meetings in Halifax on July 17, 2024. The Canadian Press/Darren Calabrese

Commentary

President-elect Donald Trump wanted to get the attention of Canadian leaders when he threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods, and it worked. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew to Mar-a-Lago to meet Trump to discuss the issue and held an emergency First Ministers’ meeting to craft a unified Canadian response.

The dinner with Trump appears to not have borne much in the way of results, however, as he has reacted by repeatedly trolling Trudeau, referring to him as the governor of the 51st state. The “Team Canada” approach Trudeau hoped to create has not had much success either, as premiers across the country take disparate approaches to the looming trade crisis.

While border security is a federal responsibility, premiers aren’t waiting for the federal government. In Manitoba, Premier Kinew announced plans to increase overtime for RCMP officers to patrol the border. In Ontario, Premier Ford proposed funding a helicopter to patrol the Windsor border region. In Alberta, Premier Smith released a comprehensive border plan, including dispatching drones and 51 Alberta sheriffs to the border region. Premier Legault of Quebec met with Trump in Paris to discuss border security measures.

Every province has asked for more federal resources for border security. Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc responded on Dec. 11, saying that spending “will roll out when it rolls out.” Vague responses do little to alleviate anxiety among provincial leaders concerned about industries in their provinces. With Trump’s inauguration fast approaching, premiers want to see decisive action and statements from the government.

The policy void from the federal front has compelled provincial leaders to speculate on retaliatory actions if a trade war were to break out. Doug Ford has threatened to shut off energy exports to millions of Americans if tariffs are applied. Trump responded to the threat with a shrug, saying “That’s fine.”

Premier Smith made it clear Alberta won’t hinder oil exports to the USA in any scenario and won’t tolerate any efforts by politicians to use the provincial exports as a weapon in a trade war. So far, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is the only federal politician proposing to cut oil exports to the United States. Albertans remain leery, though, as memories remain of the devastating 40 percent export tax on oil imposed by Pierre Trudeau in the 1980s. Smith has continued with her strategy of meeting with American governors and negotiating deals independent of federal authorities.

Donald Trump is tough to read. His threats have been dismissed by some as just jokes made by a man who likes to taunt politicians he doesn’t like. They also are being treated by some as promises etched in political stone. The only thing every Canadian leader can agree upon is if the tariffs are imposed, it will send Canada spiralling into a deep recession.

What can be done, though?

A strong, respectable plan from the federal government could stave off potential tariffs, but is the government capable of forming and pursuing one right now?

Prime Minister Trudeau is mired at the bottom of support polls and fighting for his political life while rumblings of a rebellion within his party grow louder. If he can’t retain order within his own party’s ranks, it’s unlikely he can effectively deal with a trade war with a force as volatile as Donald Trump behind it.

Provincial leaders understand the risk presented by the dearth of federal leadership in these tenuous times. That’s why they are taking unilateral initiatives rather than waiting for Ottawa to do so. Their approach could be making things worse, though.

With Ontario threatening to cut off exports, Alberta promising to expand them, and Quebec privately meeting with Trump, all the future president can see now is a collection of confused politicos scurrying in all directions. Even if Trump wanted to seek a resolution, he wouldn’t be sure who to try to negotiate with. One thing Trump does see with Canada’s disorder is opportunity, and the nation could end up signing on to some terrible trade deals.

The federal “Team Canada” notion is a good one, but no team can be effective without a solid plan. Instead of a team approach, provinces have taken an every-man-for-himself stance. The damage to Canada’s economy could become secondary to the damage caused to national unity by the fallout of this potential trade war.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.