Canada’s vulnerability as an energy exporter came into acute focus when President Trump began musing about applying tariffs to Canadian goods.
Canada could exert strong leverage in a potential trade war with the USA if it had a diverse customer base for its petroleum products. However, with 97 percent of its oil exports and 100 percent of its natural gas exports going to the United States, Canada can’t withstand tariffs or curtailment of exports for very long. Canada must diversify its customer base for petroleum products and do it soon.
Nothing could be constructed quickly enough to impact the trade dispute of today. Resolution of the issues with President Trump will happen, but Canada will likely take it on the nose with new trade agreements. Canada must come away from this dispute with a new attitude toward oil and gas pipelines and the importance of constructing them.
Canada will have a new prime minister within months and likely an entirely new government within a year. This presents an opportunity for a new approach to encouraging pipelines and LNG terminals. A new government can spur a construction boom for pipelines and bring Canada out of its dependence upon a single customer for energy exports. The government must act quickly with resolve, and unapologetically.
The solution to getting pipelines built to reach Canada’s coastlines is not through government-constructed projects. The private sector must construct these lines, and they won’t do it unless they are confident the government has their backs.
To begin with, the federal government must exert its authority on interprovincial energy infrastructure. The provinces of Quebec and B.C. both hindered pipeline construction, but constitutionally they have no authority to do so. Just as a province can’t block a highway or rail line from another province, it can’t do so with pipelines. The law must be laid down by the feds.
The regulatory process must be streamlined and fast. No company is willing to gamble investing in a project that could be delayed for years and ultimately cancelled. There’s no reason a project can’t go from conception to shovels in the ground in less than a year. This must be guaranteed.
With pipeline access to deepwater ports on all coasts for both oil and gas products, Canada will become a true energy powerhouse for the world. The nation will no longer suffer from discounts in selling to a single customer and won’t be vulnerable to being pushed around in trade disputes. Canada must come out of today’s clash with the U.S. president wiser and act to protect its sovereignty as an energy producer through market diversification.
The window of opportunity will close quickly, though. The government must act immediately to end the self-defeating policies opposing energy development and get export infrastructure in place.