Public support for the Liberal Party of Canada has sharply declined for over a year. The party desperately needs to change the channel as Canada enters an anticipated election year. Parties have three options in front of them when they have become stale in the eyes of the voters and have lost public support: they can stay the course and pray a dramatic event changes the electoral landscape, they can change the leader and hope a fresh face can turn things around, or they can keep the leader but take a strong policy pivot.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear he intends to lead the Liberals into the next election and appears to have quelled a budding caucus rebellion for now. It’s doubtful he calmed caucus concerns by saying he would stick to the same policies and tactics that have led to the current dearth of electoral support. To buy peace within his caucus, he surely proposed a plan to change tactics and win back the support of Canadians. That means some sharp and decisive policy shifts must be on the way.
“In the tumultuous times as we emerged from the pandemic, between addressing labour needs and maintaining population growth, we didn’t get the balance quite right,” Trudeau said when announcing the changes.
While his words weren’t apologetic, they offered a rare admission that his government got something wrong. Contrition hasn’t been a hallmark of the Trudeau administration, and seeing the prime minister admit error indicates he has experienced some humbling as pressure has mounted for his resignation.
Reducing immigration levels should ease pressures on the housing market, which has strained Canadians trying to buy a home or keep up with rental increases. It will be a popular policy move but it won’t be enough to tilt electoral fortunes into a winning position within 12 months. The Liberals need to implement some policies that will quickly provide tangible benefits to Canadians.
When economic times are good and crime levels are down, voters can be prone to complacency and don’t pay much attention to social justice and climate change policies. Those policies usually are crafted due to pressures from special interest groups rather than the electorate. When times get tough though, people begin scrutinizing government actions and often find themselves less than impressed with the policy direction the state has been taking.
Lowering greenhouse gas emissions isn’t a top priority for people when they can’t afford to fuel their vehicles to get to work. The failure of addiction enablement policies comes into stark relief when a person tries to ride transit amidst the growing social disorder in urban environments. While people are sympathetic to the plight of folks in war-torn nations, the sympathy wears down when high immigration levels put housing out of reach.
When push comes to shove, people’s top issues are prosperity and safety. They want to know they can live comfortably and not fear crime. If a person is destitute or fearful, nothing else matters.
The Liberals must get back to basics. They can’t keep dragging their heels on justice issues such as substantive bail reform while violent crimes keep making headlines, nor can they continue trying to tax the nation into prosperity while the cost of living rises. They need some effective policies for public safety and tax relief that could stimulate the economy.
The sharks are beginning to circle around the prime minister as former bank governor Mark Carney and former B.C. Premier Christy Clark have insinuated they are interested in the prime minister’s job. Unofficial leadership campaigns have begun, and they will quickly undercut Trudeau’s support within his own party unless he quickly proves things are about to change.
Time is of the essence for Trudeau now, and Canadians are likely in for some decisive and tumultuous policy shifts. There isn’t room for hesitation or nuance, and the prime minister will feel pressured to make some Hail Mary passes to save his political skin. We should know within a few months if his gambles lead to a winning political touchdown or a disastrous interception for the other team.
