China’s Diplomatic Wins in the Middle East

Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki (front L) attends a signing ceremony with then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (front R) as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (rear L) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping (rear R) applaud at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 14, 2023. Jade Gao/Pool/Getty Images

Commentary

China is raking up diplomatic wins as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel and Jerusalem’s response, but they may not be substantive.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has announced that it is putting its U.S.-backed normalization talks with Israel on hold due to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliation. The news comes as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had his first phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The Israeli response to the Hamas attack has already killed more than 2,300 Palestinians, raising the ire of other Muslim nations. Consequently, Saudi Arabia moving forward with its Israeli peace deal would have been seen as a betrayal of the larger Muslim world.

The phone call between the Saudi and Iranian leaders resulted from a China-brokered deal concluded earlier this year and had the blessing of Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei. The kingdom’s refusal to engage with Israel is a diplomatic failure for the United States and a win for China.

The United States has been an important ally of Saudi Arabia, as a major purchaser of oil and as a provider of security. The United States is now largely energy independent, importing only small amounts of oil from Saudi Arabia. China, by contrast, has become the largest purchaser of Saudi crude. In the absence of a peace deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia has needed U.S. military protection at home, as well as U.S. support for a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis. China hoped the Iran-Saudi peace deal would render U.S. military assistance to the kingdom unnecessary.

China’s “wumao army,“ or ”50 cent army,” is already busy on Twitter, amplifying messages about civilians killed in Gaza. Beijing is also taking the moral high ground, blaming Washington for supporting Israel’s actions. Chinese social media is brimming with expressions of support for Palestine. At the same time, American and Western cities have seen clashes between Palestine supporters and Israel supporters. While the United States must brace itself for terrorist attacks, China is unworried. The only attack so far has been on an employee of the Israeli Embassy, not a Chinese target.

A video posted on social media shows the scene of the stabbing of an Israeli Embassy staff member in Beijing on Oct. 13, 2023. Screenshot via Reuters

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) propaganda apparatus promotes China’s humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza while blaming the United States and Israel for their perceived inaction. Simultaneously, state-backed social media accounts are disseminating pro-Palestinian sentiments on platforms like Twitter, emphasizing China’s solidarity with Muslim communities worldwide. The United Front Work, the CCP’s propaganda division, has been diligent in shaping favorable portrayals of Xinjiang, showcasing content featuring smiling Uyghurs in traditional attire engaged in joyful dancing. These videos are typically accompanied by narratives discrediting Western reports of alleged genocide in Xinjiang as misinformation orchestrated by the CIA.

As further proof of Beijing’s sincerity regarding the Muslim cause, the Taliban leadership was invited to attend the Oct. 17–18 Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. China has become Afghanistan’s most important trade and investment partner, and there has been speculation that Beijing would officially recognize the Taliban as the rightful ruler of Afghanistan. In September, China became the first country to officially name a new ambassador to Kabul.

The Israel–Gaza situation will upend the Biden administration’s Middle East policy agendas aimed at countering China. Any hope for a Saudi–Israel economic corridor linking India to Europe now seems distant. But on the other hand, what has China really won?

Yitzhak Tzubara, a former staff sergeant in Israeli military intelligence, felt that, although China is making headway in the Middle East, it could never displace the United States.

“The Chinese are not the U.S., and this is the source of their weakness. You cannot be a global power without global powerful friends and a military,” he said.

So far, neither Saudi Arabia nor any other country in the Middle East has been willing to allow China’s People’s Liberation Army to replace American troops as security providers. And most countries prefer U.S. weapons to Chinese weapons. They also want to hold U.S. dollars in reserve rather than yuan.

The U.S.-backed Abraham Accords are about real cooperation in the Middle East, whereas “the China deal is more about the U.S. withdrawing,” said Mr. Tzubara. “China wants to be involved. And it has interests and imports more oil than the U.S. And that is not going to change.”

As for Saudi Arabia, he said, the kingdom “doesn’t want to choose sides between China and the U.S. It enjoys playing both sides and promoting its own policy agendas.”

For now, it seems that the CCP may be gaining ground in the realm of propaganda and garnering support from certain Middle Eastern nations. Nevertheless, the extent of this victory remains uncertain. Notably, Saudi Arabia has not indicated a rejection of its relationship with the United States. On the other hand, Europe and the G7 countries are aligning with the United States and Israel. In broader global power dynamics, the United States was unlikely to win favor with the Taliban or South Africa, a member of the BRICS that has strongly criticized Israel. Ultimately, Washington retains its preeminent position on the global stage, while Beijing continues its pursuit of the top spot.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.