China Lies About Its Rapid Nuclear Weapons Expansion

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

The regime in China is lying about its dramatic expansion of nuclear weapons capabilities. One of the most telling examples is Chinese state media trying to depict the buildout of about 300 new nuclear missile silos as not for missiles but for wind turbines.

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was not fooled or amused.

According to a new DIA report, Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal at a historically unprecedented rate and will likely reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. Some of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) missiles will be able to carry three nuclear warheads at a time. The PLA is probably expanding its low-yield nuclear capabilities as part of this, while calling on other nations to limit their own nuclear development. Low-yield “tactical” nuclear weapons could be used by the PLA in an otherwise conventional war against Taiwan, for example.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is hiding the full extent of its nuclear arsenal expansion, according to the report, while refusing to engage in nuclear arms control agreements and becoming increasingly secretive. Beijing “reduced transparency in its nuclear program as its capabilities are increasing,” the DIA noted in the report, released on Oct. 23.

Beijing claims that other countries should voluntarily limit their nuclear weapons development and strategic doctrine, while secretly developing its own. The PLA already has conventional military advantages over most countries in the world. If the latter forgo nuclear weapons, the PLA will only extend its advantages in the nuclear sphere as well. This could make any non-nuclear country in the world almost defenseless against the PLA.

The report notes that since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has become the main target of the PLA’s nuclear weapons, which Beijing tries to pass off as a defensive deterrent. At the same time, the CCP attempts to use its nuclear weapons as part of its offensive strategies to invade Taiwan and claim the South China Sea as part of China’s exclusive territory. Beijing apparently hopes that non-nuclear countries in Asia—including Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei—will be intimidated by Beijing’s nuclear weapons and “escalation dominance” and relinquish their territory and sovereignty without a shot fired.

One has to wonder, based on Xi Jinping’s apparent claim in 2017 that China once controlled all of the Korean peninsula, whether the Koreas should be added to the list.

The longer we allow the CCP to bully countries in Asia, the more we whet its appetite, and the further its ambitions extend to other parts of the globe. Beijing has claimed deep-sea mining rights near Hawaii based on a United Nations giveaway for which the United States is currently ineligible. In July, two nuclear-capable Chinese bombers flew near Alaska. Russian bombers and fighter jets joined the excursion.

The regime in Russia is transferring nuclear weapons doctrine and capabilities to China, including missile tracking and hair-trigger capabilities, so that China can “launch-on-warning” rather than wait for a first strike to hit, according to the DIA report. This opens up the possibility of an accidental nuclear war started due to a mistake by a Chinese missile tracker.

Since at least 2015, the CCP has hidden its total production of nuclear weapons fuel, and in 2017, stopped reporting its plutonium stockpile to the International Atomic Energy Agency. While the United States, United Kingdom, and France follow a “zero-yield” policy that limits nuclear weapons tests to computer simulations, the PLA’s nuclear testing program lacks transparency and is probably preparing to operate a physical nuclear test site at Lop Nur year-round. Such testing would likely cause radioactive materials to be released into the atmosphere.

As China improves its nuclear weapons capabilities, especially its second-strike nuclear option, Xi’s already damaging geopolitical confidence will grow. Xi has developed a strong personal interest in his nuclear weapons capabilities, by visiting, for example, a ballistic missile submarine commissioning in 2021 and the PLA Rocket Force on Oct. 17 in Anhui Province.

As noted by the DIA, “Beijing’s pursuit of enhanced nuclear deterrence over the next decade probably will increase leadership confidence—and the risk of miscalculation—as the PLA makes gradual improvements in its ability to signal and counter the U.S.” This overconfidence from a strengthened nuclear backstop is likely contributing to Xi’s willingness to push China’s boundaries, not only in Taiwan and the South China Sea against non-nuclear powers but also against what he sees as the weakness of even nuclear-armed democracies like the United States and India.

Xi’s offensive territorial operations and lack of a mature nuclear doctrine spell trouble for free countries everywhere. According to the DIA, the PLA’s nuclear immaturity “may introduce a period during the next several years of escalatory risks” that “blur conventional and nuclear boundaries.”

One should conclude from the above that Beijing will continue to try to use its nuclear weapons to compel other countries to give up their territory and exclusive economic zones in the maritime domain. It could also use its nuclear weapons against the U.S. satellites upon which our men and women in uniform largely depend for communications and navigation.

A future in which the CCP feels comfortable claiming a U.S. island near Alaska or Hawaii is conceivable, as is the PLA making a veiled nuclear threat to try and force an American retreat anywhere in the world. So watch out for more bold and unwelcome moves from the CCP. And redouble efforts to ensure tomorrow’s peace through strengthening today’s deterrence.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.