We might be witnessing the most challenging and tumultuous period for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since it came to power, with leadership succession becoming a pressing topic.
Insiders recently disclosed that during the Third Plenum in July, Party elders called for a more defined succession system. The CCP holds the planning session every five years or so to decide on major economic and social policies.
CCP leader Xi Jinping is now under immense pressure, not only from the Party elders but, more importantly, from the continuing decline of the Chinese economy, which includes issues such as the stock market slump, the real estate crisis, and local government debt problems. Internationally, he also faces significant challenges, from foreign trade and exports to the fallout from his support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where he has invested considerable effort, money, and resources.
Faced with demands from Party elders, Xi himself may be reluctant to name a successor at this stage, but he can no longer ignore the issue. This gives hope to those who see themselves as potential successors.
Since the CCP’s founding, its leaders have typically come from the Politburo Standing Committee. Following this tradition, Premier Li Qiang, as the second-ranking member, seems poised to succeed Xi. Beyond this nominal status, however, Li lacks substantial advantages, and there is no guarantee of support from the Party elders.
Retired members of the Jiang faction, also known as the Shanghai clique, who are allies of the now-deceased former CCP leader Jiang Zemin, may oppose Li relentlessly because, in his previous role as Shanghai mayor, he undermined their influence in Shanghai at Xi’s behest.
Moreover, Li’s lack of experience in the central government means he lacks crucial connections in Beijing.
In contrast, Cai Qi, the director of the CCP General Office and the fifth-ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee, has spent the past year acquiring more titles and control over key committees, making it unlikely that he would accept Li as a superior.
Xi should still have a say in the succession, but managing the rivalry between Li and Cai will be a major challenge for him.
Ding Xuexiang, 62, the first vice premier and the sixth-ranking member of the Politburo Standing Committee, appears to be a potential successor arranged by Xi. By keeping Ding on the Standing Committee, Xi appears to be deliberately positioning him as a viable candidate for succession. Although Ding has less experience and no background in local governance, Xi may have thought his relatively young age positioned him as a suitable candidate when Xi originally intended to rule for life.
Ding, having closely followed Xi and run the Central Office, is well-acquainted with the infighting among CCP members and likely has many high-level officials’ secrets in his hands—though gaining acceptance from the Party elders remains a hurdle.
This review indicates that none of the Politburo members currently possesses a decisive advantage over the rest, creating a tense atmosphere.
These potential successors must also remain vigilant against emerging dark horses, including former Politburo member Hu Chunhua. Once a candidate favored by the faction of former CCP leader Hu Jintao, Hu enjoys an age advantage and may attract support from certain elders.
On Oct. 8, an article by Hu was prominently featured in various state media outlets. As vice chairman of the Political Consultative Conference, he advocated that the political advisory body should adhere to Xi’s directives. The article aimed to express loyalty and increase visibility, indicating that Hu believes he can compete for the CCP’s top leadership position. However, returning to the Politburo and advancing to the Standing Committee are essential steps toward his ambitions.
The outcome will likely depend on the decisions of the top echelons of the CCP, including the retired Party elders. This group is obsessed with the privileges and benefits they have secured for themselves, and they will undoubtedly fight to keep the CCP in power.
Thus, amid the current crisis, the most pressing issue facing the CCP may no longer be Xi’s fate or the balance of power but rather the direction the Party should take in the next stage of its existence—how to overcome its current predicament and who can lead the Party out of this crisis.
