The Arleigh-Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Kidd (DDG 100) transits the Taiwan Strait during a routine transit on Aug. 27, 2021. U.S. Navy/AFP/Getty Images
With Hong Kong almost fully absorbed into communist China, Xi Jinping’s next domino to fall toward his goal of consolidating overseas Chinese into “Greater China” appears to be Taiwan.
This, of course, is no surprise among China watchers who have been observing the Chinese military’s increasingly intimidating antics in the waters surrounding Taiwan and its airspace over the past several years.
(Note: While Greater China has included the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Singapore, it could be argued that Xi also has designs on other territories containing large Chinese minority populations and/or disputed claims in the South China Sea and elsewhere in China’s “near abroad.”)
An egregious strategic and diplomatic error was made by the United States when a “One China” policy was cavalierly formalized by the Jimmy Carter administration in 1979 as part of the process of recognizing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the “sole legal government of China” while concurrently removing any consideration of the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) being a separate sovereign entity going forward.
President Carter’s “One China” policy crystallized informal U.S. government policy that evolved after President Richard Nixon “opened China” in 1972. The policy ultimately resulted in strategic ambiguity: Washington did not recognize Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan while also not agreeing that Taiwan was/is an independent and sovereign state.
The result has been 45 years of uncertainty for the people of Taiwan and other nations in the region, wary of the CCP’s intentions, as Taiwan’s fate was gifted to the communists according to their timeline. Cynics might add that the fates of 24 million Taiwanese have been sacrificed to the commercial interests of the U.S. and multinational corporations eager to do business in China.
For years, CCP leaders have publicly reiterated and reinforced its “One China” principle with the United States and the international community, including through every state-run media article discussing Taiwan and its future since 1979 and every summary report of the CCP’s national party congresses over the years. Under the “One China” principle, Beijing claims that Taiwan is an integral part of China and must be reunited with the mainland by any means necessary.
Conversely, any perceived foreign resistance or efforts to thwart Beijing’s unification plans have been bitterly condemned, with the “One China” principle used as a club to remind the world of the “inevitability” that Beijing is the exclusive arbiter of Taiwan’s destiny.
A good example of Beijing’s ongoing “One China” information warfare campaign against Taiwan was the statement on March 13 by Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the CCP’s State Council Taiwan Affairs Office: “The historical trend toward a stronger China, national rejuvenation, and reunification cannot be stopped.”
That’s just the latest veiled threat from the CCP. Let’s examine the issue.
Reunification With Chinese Characteristics
The CCP has pursued Taiwan reunification under the “One China” principle using a variety of carrot-and-stick tactics that have been elevated under Xi. These encompass a range of strategies, such as economic incentives (subsidies, joint ventures, etc.), bolstering the attractiveness of Xiamen for Taiwanese investment, enhancing cultural connections, engaging in bribery and corruption, leveraging educational policies to attract Taiwanese students, exerting economic pressures to sway elections in favor of pro-CCP politicians, disseminating disinformation to influence Taiwanese decision-making, employing coercive diplomacy, and instilling fear through the presence of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operating near Taiwan.
Although these and other communist inducements and threats were ramped up ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the historically pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the election. Perhaps observing Hong Kong’s descension gave voters clues about what might be in store for Taiwan after “reunification with Chinese characteristics.”
Since the January election, Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan. A CCP spokesman stated on Jan. 25 that “Taiwan will never be a country.” As reported by The Federalist in January, “China had sent 233 Chinese military aircraft, 110 naval vessels, and dozens of spy balloons around Taiwan.” As a result, “PLA-Navy ship deployments had increased to “[maintain] a constant military presence around Taiwan,” Newsweek reported. This is the “new normal” for PLA intimidation of Taiwan that is continuing.
China has also pursued erasing pre-existing territorial boundaries by “[denying] the existence of maritime boundaries around Kinmen County,” as reported by Taiwan News. In February, the deaths of two Chinese fishermen near the Kinmen archipelago precipitated a harsh diplomatic response by Beijing that has since become a pretense for increased Chinese coast guard patrols in the area—another “new normal” of pressure.
PLA aircraft increasingly violate Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), which is monitored to provide early warning of approaching PLA aircraft or missiles. In 2023, “a total of 1,709 Chinese warplanes were tracked entering [the] ADIZ,” according to Newsweek.
Perhaps Beijing’s most alarming action was the abrupt dropping of the mention of “peaceful reunification” in a government report delivered by Premier Li Qiang at the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s rubber-stamp legislature, on March 5. This would hardly seem to be coincidental.
What would the United States be prepared to do if communist China attempted reunification under force of arms?
Not So Fast!
Since the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, Taiwan has been one of the largest purchasers of military equipment and aid through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) process. Under the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act (TERA) of 2023, Foreign Military Financing (FMF) authorized Taiwan to receive up to $2 billion per year in loan guarantees through fiscal year 2027. Under the presidential drawdown authority, the United States transferred $345 million of equipment to Taiwan in late 2023.
In 2024, the United States responded to these actions by authorizing the sale to Taiwan of “about $75 million of advanced tactical data link system upgrades” to improve command and control and interoperability with the United States and other nations’ military forces, according to Reuters.
There is more in the queue in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which contains a provision to “establish a comprehensive training, advising and institutional capacity building program for the military forces of Taiwan,” as well as U.S. assistance in improving Taiwan’s cybersecurity capabilities. In addition, Taiwan’s United Daily News announced that the U.S. 1st Special Forces Group has established a permanent on-island training presence in support of Taiwan’s 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion.
While these are not the big-ticket weapons and equipment hoped for by Taiwan, at least they are a start.
U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) attends a press conference with Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), and U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) at Taipei Guest House in Taiwan on Feb. 22, 2024. Ben Blanchard/Reuters
Concluding Thoughts
“Taiwan reunification” remains a hot button for communist China. Any real or perceived threats to reunification on Beijing’s terms incur the wrath of Chinese diplomats and spokespersons in state-run Chinese media. For example, in January, China sanctioned five military arms manufacturers in the United States in response to arms sales to Taiwan. And on Feb. 23, a Chinese spokesman declared that the U.S. sale of tactical data link system upgrades was a dangerous “gamble.”
Lastly, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman issued a strongly worded statement opposing the Biden administration’s proposals for $100 million in additional military aid to Taiwan in March, saying, “China will take resolute measures to firmly safeguard its own sovereignty and territorial integrity.” “Resolute measures” seems pretty ominous.
A good response to the continuing CCP intimidation of Taiwan and veiled threats to the United States would include the following actions: invoking provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act to improve Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities (such as theater area air defenses, advanced aircraft, and long-range hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles); officially recognizing Taiwan and opening corresponding embassies in Taipei and Washington; and completing a mutual defense treaty among Taiwan and other nations in the region as a deterrent to the PLA.
And this would end the misguided “One China” policy once and for all (but not Beijing’s caterwauling).
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Stu Cvrk
Author
Stu Cvrk retired as a captain after serving 30 years in the U.S. Navy in a variety of active and reserve capacities, with considerable operational experience in the Middle East and the Western Pacific. Through education and experience as an oceanographer and systems analyst, Cvrk is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, where he received a classical liberal education that serves as the key foundation for his political commentary.
