Participation awards are those lame awards that ensure every participant walks away with something in their hand.
The Dunkley by-election result delivered a similar result for the two major parties. The hapless Greens, whilst participating, suffered a substantial decrease in voter support.
To the victor the spoils and there is no doubt that Labor won the seat of Dunkley with a degree of reserve in the margin despite a sizeable swing.
A win is a win and Labor’s Jodie Belyea goes to Canberra as the popularly elected member.
On any assessment, this is a good result for Labor’s public relations machine which will simply chalk up the result as another win and “nothing to be seen here” mantra.
However, the result is more complex than such a shallow analysis would suggest.
First-term governments usually do better in by-elections than in subsequent terms.
Labor is still in its first term although some might think it’s been a lot longer.
On average the by-election swing for a first term government hovers at about 1.5 percent. The Dunkley result suggests a swing twice that size.
Postal votes are still to be counted and usually favour the Coalition parties.
Wins and Losses
Many factors should be concerning for Labor. It was the incumbent. It was a new government. It was a by-election occasioned by the untimely, tragic, and unfortunate death of the previous sitting member (Peta Murphy).The latter evoked sympathy and allowed the Labor party to avoid the usual public outcry as to why they are being dragged to the polls again.
The normal attacks of why someone resigned their seat for personal gain or consideration were understandably absent in this by-election.
Despite these advantages playing to Labor, the swing against it was substantial. If replicated Australia-wide, the country would be led by Peter Dutton.
From the Liberal perspective there will be, or should be, substantial disappointment that the mid-term hiccups from which all first-term governments suffer, were not capitalised on sufficiently to turn the seat over.
There were the teething issues, the ASIO revelation on recruitment by foreign players, the return of the “boat people,” the tax cuts backflip, the mid-term blues generally, and the big one—the cost of living. Yet a 6 percent swing in primary votes is a healthy result.
The one participant who takes nothing away from the result is the Greens, with a 3-plus percentage decrease in their vote.
At a time when the cost of living is biting the populace, many look for policy based on practical outcomes.
The Greens’ strong suit of emotional platitudes did not cut it with the punters. The drop in Greens support, while relatively small as a percentage, represented the loss of about one-third of their voter base.
Possibly their ugly anti-Israel stance has also evoked a response.
Interestingly, by-elections normally provide the opportunity for protest voting, but this by-election saw a swing to the two established parties. However, this also may have been due to the non-participation of One Nation and the United Australia Party (UAP).
In short, we have a Labor win, but it was a morale-boosting and potentially general election-winning outcome for Peter Dutton’s Liberals.
