Ontario Pre-Election Budget: Record Spending, but ‘Not Just a Vote-Buying Tactic,’ Academic Says

Ontario Premier Doug Ford heads to a meeting with Lt.-Gov. Elizabeth Dowdeswell to officially start the provincial election period, at Queen's Park in Toronto on May 3, 2022. The Canadian Press/Frank Gunn

Some Ontario political science experts say the recent provincial budget presented by Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives was geared to score a victory in the June 2 election and that it left his opposition with little to work with.

The record $198.6 billion budget includes $185.2 billion of spending this fiscal year on bread-and-butter political items, such as more infrastructure, jobs and skills training, health care, home care, and public transit. Only $6.9 billion of that $185.2 billion is allocated to COVID-19 response.

Scott Edward Bennett, professor of political science at Carleton University, says the budget offered no vulnerable flank for the NDP and Liberals to strike.

“The main opposition parties can’t really attack the budget for its size because they are even more historically prone to high spending policy proposals. So, by and large, they seem to be trying to defend the health and education professions that are connected to large public sector or near public sector unions,” Bennett told The Epoch Times.

“The reality is that Canadians have become more used to massive government spending, and it is almost impossible to change that overnight. So, we have the biggest budget proposal in the history of the province and we have an upward shift in the projected deficit.”

Prior to the budget, Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office said the province was on pace for revenues to surpass expenditures by 2023–24. That’s less likely now, as the government projects a budget deficit of $19.9 billion this fiscal year—$6.4 billion worse than last year. Spending growth tapers off in subsequent years, suggesting a return to balanced budgets in 2027–28.

Bennett believes the budget may signal a nod to smaller government in ways not apparent by its large spending. He says an emphasis on employment in the trades is only one way the budget nods to a larger private sector.

“This is not just a vote-buying tactic on the eve of an election. It is partly that, but it is also a more strategic attempt to change the rewards and incentives that shape Ontario’s economy and society,” he said.

“Those who work or want to work in an economy that is less tied to public sector and near public sector jobs will be rewarded. However, these changes in priorities will need to be nurtured for a time by large public expenditures.”

‘Goodies in It’

The path to growth also includes more highway construction, with $25.1 billion budgeted for the next decade. The PCs are also making it cheaper to drive this election year by removing the toll for two highways, cutting the gas tax by 5.7 cents per litre for the final six months of 2022, and issuing retroactive refunds on vehicle licence plate renewal fees.

Nelson Wiseman, political science professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, said the licence plate fee refund was a “gimmick” that “boosted Ford.”

“I’ve got enough for dinner anyways, I don’t need their $410. But hey, that looked OK,” Nelson said. “It’s a stunt because if you really want to reduce my cost, you could just lower the income tax.”

Wiseman said he believes the timing and content of the budget not only reflects a reach for votes but also some inconsistencies between criticism by the PC party when it was in Opposition and its actual policies after winning the 2018 election.

The Ford government cancelled the Liberal increase to the minimum wage after taking power, but raised it from $15 to $15.50 per hour in the recent budget, effective Oct. 1, after raising it from $14.35 to $15 effective Jan. 1.

“Their whole calculation was ‘we'll go into an election with this budget. The budget will help us because we’re going to have goodies in it,’” Wiseman said.

Criticism From the Political Right

Fiscal conservative organizations, such as the Fraser Institute, count the Ford government’s deficit as a broken promise that defies the spirit of Bill 100, the “protecting what matters most” law passed in 2019, which said the government “shall plan for a balanced budget” every fiscal year.

Bennett says voters who feel the same way will gravitate to upstart alternatives.

“The organizations and people who are actually launching the most active criticisms of the budget are on the right of the political spectrum. The Ontario Party has launched articulate attacks on the size of the budget and the deficit [and] supports a more prudent approach to finances than most political parties of this era,” Bennett said.

“Other former supporters of the PCs are not happy with the way the Ford government dealt with the pandemic, and some are deeply concerned with the lack of respect for religious freedom displayed in the last two years. In addition, a fair number of previous grassroots supporters of the Ford government feel they have been ignored and that the party has become overly influenced by the usual corporate and bureaucratic forces.”

Independent MPP Belinda Karahalios, a former Progressive Conservative, will represent the New Blue Party in this election, while former Conservative MP Derek Sloan will try to gain a provincial seat for the Ontario Party. Wiseman believes these alternatives would fare better if the pandemic were still “raging.”

“I don’t think we'll have the pandemic play a role in this election because most voters have very short attention spans—sort of equivalent to the attention span of a cat. Some will still hold it against the Ford government what happened in long-term care homes,” he said.

“The overall issue is going to be for people, ‘Are you better off than you were before? Are you more optimistic about things?’ There’s anxiety about interest rates and inflation.”