The latest variant of concern, Omicron, is spreading rapidly, but data so far shows its severity to be mild compared to past variants, while some argue it’s still too early to draw conclusions.
“There is reason to be optimistic for most individuals, but we should at the same time watch how it goes here to confirm our optimism,” Dr. Harvey Risch, a professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, told The Epoch Times.
Transmissibility and Severity
A study from the University of Hong Kong found that the reason for the higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant could be that it multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 virus in the bronchus. It also shows that Omicron replicates more in the respiratory tract than in the lungs, and that infection by Omicron in the lungs is 10 times less efficient than the original SARS-CoV-2. Released Dec. 15, the study is currently being peer-reviewed before publication in a scientific journal.“In total, if you look at our numbers, it’s going down,” she said.
The country had 19,400 cases on Dec. 20, down from the peak of 23,437 on Dec. 17.
Of note is that the rates of deaths and hospitalizations remain much lower compared to the previous waves of the virus infection.
“When we look at Delta, it was four or five hundred people per day admitted [to the hospital]. If we look at Omicron, [it was] 87 [on Dec. 18], and our numbers are more or less the whole time around this,” Coetzee said.
South Africa had 44 COVID-19 deaths on Dec. 20, compared to a peak daily death of 420 in the summer.
Experts are also monitoring the situation closely in Denmark and the UK, which have had their own Omicron outbreaks, since the conditions are closer to countries like Canada and can serve as similar examples.
So far, the data show a similar trend in these countries as in South Africa, with high case counts but low numbers of deaths and hospitalizations. However, experts caution that it may be too early to draw conclusions, as hospitalization and deaths trail case identification, and infections in Denmark and the UK happened more recently than in South Africa.
If current data is to be taken as an indication, both Denmark and the UK show a clear decoupling of cases and deaths.
Denmark’s case count shot up to 10,082 on Dec. 20, from 8,212 a day earlier, a 23 percent rise, and from 4,559 cases on Dec. 4, a 121 percent rise. The country’s case fatality rate, the ratio between confirmed deaths and confirmed cases, has been on the decline: 0.49 percent on Dec. 20 compared to 0.5 percent on Dec. 19 and 0.58 percent on Dec. 4. Denmark had 8 deaths on Dec. 20, 9 deaths on Dec. 19, and 12 deaths on Dec. 4.
In the UK, there were 91,734 new cases on Dec. 20, up from 81,959 on Dec. 19, a 12 percent rise, and 41,457 on Dec. 4, a 121 percent rise. The UK’s case fatality rate was 1.28 percent on Dec. 20, down from 1.29 percent the previous day, and 1.4 percent on Dec. 4. The country had 43 deaths on Dec. 20, 45 on Dec. 19, and 127 on Dec. 4.
Policy Directions
In the face of the rising case counts due to the Omicron variant, a number of countries including Canada have introduced a range of new restrictions.Some are saying stricter measures are needed to curb the rising cases.
If the hospitalizations and death counts remain relatively low, as seen in countries on the forefront of the infection so far, the tsunami metaphor may only be accurate for case counts, rather than overall severe outcomes.
Dr. David Jacobs, chair of Ontario Specialists Association and a radiologist who has been involved with COVID-19 cases, criticized Jüni’s tone.
Some medical professionals have argued that while early data from other countries is optimistic, a sound approach would be to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
“If that proves true it'll be absolutely excellent news. I think it’s always a good idea to hope for the best and plan for the worst,” he said, while pointing out that there are a number of factors that make the situation in South Africa different from that in Canada, including the former having a younger population and lower vaccination rate but higher immunity from previous infection, among other factors.
If planning for the worst involves more shutdowns, however, it would have repercussions, given the increased rates of depression and mental illness during the pandemic as well as major adverse economic implications that result from lockdowns and restrictions, to name a few issues.
In the case of South Africa, where more time has elapsed since the initial outbreak and where the case count seems to be on the decline, he similarly cautions that the experience there may not be similar to that in Canada, as “they have natural immunity and we have immunity from vaccination.”
Paul Elias Alexander, a former assistant professor at McMaster University and an expert in evidence-based medicine and clinical epidemiology, says the fact that the Omicron variant is spreading fast and seems to have a less severe impact may help bring about natural immunity.
“It will work wonders,” he said in an email. “Natural immunity to one variant will protect against others due to the fact the immune system sees the full viral ball and all the proteins (membrane, nucleocapsid, spike, all conserved parts of the virus etc.) while vaccine is geared to just one spike.”
He added that it was too early to make that determination.
Dr. Risch, from Yale School of Public Health, says it’s possible that the Omicron variant can help in developing natural immunity, pointing to emerging data from Denmark.
“I believe that Denmark has recorded some hospitalizations, but very few seem to have been serious,” he said, adding that the situation needs to be monitored further before making any final conclusions.
But what is key to proper monitoring of the pandemic, he notes, is to observe counts of deaths and hospitalizations rather than cases.
“Cases may sometimes be unpleasant, but if they generally resolve on their own or with early treatment as we know is available, and don’t leave serious lasting effects, then their numbers are unimportant,” Dr. Risch says.
“Follow the hospitalizations and mortality, and relax about the cases.”