After quickly increasing to 21.8 million people the week of April 24 from 2 million people during the week of March 7, the number of people continuing to receive state-sponsored unemployment benefits has steadily declined to 12.3 million the week of Sept. 5.
Normally, it makes sense to “seasonally adjust” job market data because large portions of the labor market are seasonal. There are school teachers, who start in the fall and finish in the late spring, retail workers during Christmas shopping season, and construction workers, who can’t work during the cold winter months.
There are many such reasonable adjustments.
By far the most important factor affecting the dramatic increase in continuing unemployment claims and the subsequent, almost-as-dramatic, decrease are public health concerns surrounding COVID-19 and the related shelter-in-place orders.
Using unadjusted data, we can see that more than 1 million Americans are no longer continuing to receive benefits from state unemployment insurance than in the previous week.
This is important for two reasons: State unemployment rates are the highest in places that were most recently affected by sharp spikes in COVID-19 cases (New York Tri-State area, Illinois, California), or that have economies heavily tied to tourism (Hawaii, Nevada).
Of course, we all want people to get back to work as soon as possible. It’s good for psychological wellness as well as providing all the other benefits that accrue from the dignity of work.
