After a long lockout, an abbreviated free agent signing frenzy, and barely any practices the NBA season tips off Sunday with a quintuple-header. How the limited training camps affects some teams will be interesting to watch. Those teams that have the same core of players and coaches as last year (like Miami, Chicago, and Boston) should be ahead of the curve to start the season.
With that in mind, here is the predicted order of finish, with predicted record in parenthesis:
1. Miami Heat: (52-14)— The Heat made few changes to their roster, keeping their star trio of LeBron-Wade-Bosh intact. Best case scenario: LeBron snaps out of his finals funk and the Heat cut down the nets. Worst case scenario: Wade gets injured again and Chicago blows past them and into the finals.
2. Chicago Bulls: (51-15)—Chicago shored up their weakest position (shooting guard) with the addition of Richard Hamilton. Best case scenario: Hamilton, now 33, shows little signs of rust and continues his clutch-shooting in this year’s playoffs. Worst case scenario: LeBron roars past them in the playoffs, leaving them final-less again.
3. New York: (45-21)—Getting Tyson Chandler was huge, though releasing Billups without a reliable backup was a heavy price to pay. Best case scenario: Mike Bibby and Toney Douglas excel at the point until a rejuvenated Baron Davis is healthy. Worst Case Scenario: The quick training camp and abbreviated season doesn’t allow enough time for the team to gel with the new point guards and center.
4. Boston: (42-24)—With forward Jeff Green out for the year, the aging and already thin Celtics will rely on their tremendous team chemistry to get them through this season. Best case scenario: With a Chris Paul trade off the table now all the Celts can really do is hope resident point guard Rajon Rondo makes them regret dangling him as trade bait. Worst case scenario: Aging legends Ray Allen (36 years old), Kevin Garnett (35), and Paul Pierce (34) all take a step back this season.
5. Orlando: (40-26)—The fate of the Magic’s season rests in the large hands of Dwight Howard. Best case scenario: Howard signs extension (though highly unlikely) as the team promises to provide a better supporting cast around him. Worst case scenario: Magic deal Howard to Nets for 35 cents on the dollar, relegating them to post-LeBron Cleveland-status.
6. Indiana: (37-29)—The Pacers have a nice lineup with the addition of power forward David West. Best case scenario: Power forward David West fits in well with their young core of Danny Granger (28), Darren Collison (24), Roy Hibbert (25). Worst case scenario: Granger’s scoring average continues to drop (25.8 in ‘09 down to 20.5 last season) and East Conference is tougher than expected.
7. Atlanta (35-31)—The Hawks lost super sixth man Jamal Crawford but still have a decent core of Al Horford, Joe Johnson, Kirk Hinrich and Josh Smith. Best case scenario: Free-agent acquisition Tracy McGrady makes everyone forget about Crawford. Worst case scenario: Joe Johnson’s production continues to decline and Atlanta misses playoffs for first time since ‘07.
8. New Jersey (32-34)—A full-season combination of star point guard Deron Williams and stellar head coach Avery Johnson may be enough for a playoff spot. Best case scenario: Dwight Howard forces his way to New Jersey; Nets become contender. Worst case scenario: Young center Brook Lopez’s rebounding continues to regress (just 6.0 per game last year) prompting Deron Williams to leave before team arrives in Brooklyn.
9. Milwaukee (31-35)—With a number of average, yet unspectacular veterans, Milwaukee is actually the toughest call on the list. Best case scenario: Coach Scott Skiles get his team to play stellar defense, while center Andrew Bogut continues to be a force inside. Worst case scenario: The slower Bucks fail to score enough points to win and miss the playoffs.
10. Philadelphia (28-38)—The Sixers actually have acquired some good young players though none play the all-important center or point guard. Best case scenario: Former second-overall pick Evan Turner becomes do-everything guard they once envisioned and they make the playoffs. Worst case scenario: Elton Brand either gets injured again or is still unable to regain the form he once had and Sixers keep rebuilding.
11. Washington (25-41)—With John Wall entering his second season, the Wizards should see a little improvement. Best case scenario: Actually 28-38 is a pretty generous prediction for a team with little talent other than the point guard position. Worst case scenario: They make the playoffs with a poor record as the rebuilding Wizards need high draft-picks and time to then let them mature.
12. Charlotte (24-42)—The Bobcats don’t have much going for them but did draft a good point guard in Kemba Walker. Best case scenario: Charlotte misses the playoffs (again) but strike it rich in next year’s talent-heavy draft lottery. Worst case scenario: Walker’s talent doesn’t translate to the NBA and the team has to keep rebuilding.
13. Detroit (22-44)—The Pistons have had to rebuild with too many large contracts on the books and until the highly paid contracts of Charlie Villanueva or Ben Gordon are gone, Detroit will continue to be handicapped. Best case scenario: They miss the playoffs and hit it big in the draft lottery. Worst case scenario: They miss the playoffs (inevitable) and sign another overpaid free agent, setting the team back another five years.
14. Cleveland (18-48)—With new point guard Kyrie Irving in charge, the Cavs look like they’re finally starting over following the departure of King James. Best case scenario: Irving looks like the real deal and Cleveland has their much-needed building block. Worst case scenario: Hard to be worse than last year, though Cavs can’t afford any bad drafts down the line.
15. Toronto (13-53)—The talentless Raptors had little remaining following the departure of Chris Bosh and they didn’t restock the bare cupboard this offseason. Best case scenario: There’s not much hope here. No big stars are coming via free agency and all Toronto can do is scout for the draft. Worst case scenario: Hard to get worse than 13-53, but if Raptors don’t turn it around, support for the team will continue to drop and NBA may have to take drastic steps.
