It’s an exciting moment for Smith, a longtime friend and colleague. Once the pomp and circumstance concludes, she knows that the hard work begins.
Smith has to not only look ahead to the next Alberta election, which is provincially mandated to be held on or before May 29, 2023, but also find ways to work with Ottawa. It’s a difficult balancing act most premiers have had to face. It’ll be especially tricky in her case.
Alberta was Canada’s most consistently conservative province for 80 years. The Social Credit Party led the province from 1935 to 1971, and the Progressive Conservatives held power from 1971 to 2015. The premiers during this period of time, from William Aberhart to Jim Prentice, differed in terms of political ideology, policy, and vision. Right-leaning support for small government, low taxes, economic liberty, and greater individual rights and freedoms was shared by many Alberta politicians and voters.
This changed when Prentice lost in 2015 to Rachel Notley and the NDP. It wasn’t caused by a sudden fascination with socialism and left-wing policies in the Heartland. Several reasons behind this unexpected upheaval included frustration with the PC government, a slow-burning sentiment to “throw the bums out” in politics, changing demographics in urban areas, and a short-lived disconnect with Prentice and other right-leaning entities.
Smith was among them. She was Wildrose Party leader at the time, and leader of the official Opposition in Alberta. She had become frustrated with the antics of some of her caucus. There had also been a difficult annual general meeting where an anti-discrimination resolution she supported was voted down.
During this time, the respected Conservative MP Jason Kenney would leave Ottawa and become Alberta PC leader on Mar. 18, 2017. He merged the party with Wildrose and then-leader Brian Jean on May 18, and defeated Jean and Doug Schweitzer to become UCP leader on Oct. 28. On April 16, 2019, Kenney would defeat Notley and become premier.
In a strange twist of irony, Smith helped lay the groundwork (with Prentice) for the UCP’s founding and electoral success with Kenney. Few would have predicted this. Then again, few would have predicted Kenney’s shocking rise and fall in Alberta largely due to his government’s poor performance during COVID-19.
Smith has earned the trust of UCP members. She still needs to build bridges with disillusioned Alberta conservatives and independents to create a decent-sized cushion of support.
There are also people concerned about Smith’s ability to lead the province. They perceive her as being some sort of dangerous, far-right zealot—which the libertarian-leaning premier-designate most certainly isn’t. They’re also fearful that her support of an Alberta Sovereignty Act could create icy relations between Alberta and Ottawa. Not only is this entirely unfounded, it’s not grounded in reality because she hasn’t even started yet.
Smith’s job performance will therefore be under a microscope. That’s to her advantage.
She’s an intelligent, capable, and affable individual who enjoys everything from studying policy to building bridges with political opponents. She’ll never see eye to eye with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on most issues, including the federal carbon tax, developing Alberta’s oilsands, and equalization payments. Still, she’ll likely find common ground with Ottawa on aspects of social policy, job creation, and promoting Canada to the world.
Smith is, and has always been, sensible and practical. She knows what she needs to do to succeed with voters and negotiate with Ottawa. She’ll studiously avoid pitfalls that she’s previously encountered. She’ll remain a true champion of Alberta’s political and economic rights, and a strong supporter of conservatism, liberty, and freedom.
Smith’s new political adventure has just begun, and her path to political victory is in clear view. I’ll be watching with great interest.
