Ontario Premier Doug Ford hiking the minimum wage thrills liberals and socialists because they think those fusty, hard-hearted Tories, in jettisoning obsolete economic theory for compassion, are admitting they were right all along. And it thrills conservatives to give up defending unpopular ideas because they think they’ll stop being treated as social lepers. So it might rather spoil the mood to point out that, economically, the move is rubbish.
As so often, I’m reminded of one of Henry Hazlitt’s most requotable lines: “A mere recital of the economic policies of governments all over the world is calculated to cause any serious student of economics to throw up his hands in despair.” And it hasn’t gotten better since he continued, back in 1946, “What possible point can there be … in discussing refinements and advances in economic theory, when popular thought and the actual policies of governments … have not yet caught up with Adam Smith?” Not that Ford is even trying.
If he were, he’d understand that if you increase the price of something, people buy less of it. Whether it’s online music, roofing tiles, or unskilled labour, the more it costs, the more people try to find substitutes. Like, oh, I don’t know, automated ordering screens in fast food restaurants. Minimum wages hurt the people they try to help.
Markets aren’t perfect. But if you think government is, I can’t help you. For everyone else, the fact that some people’s labour is not worth as much as we, or they, would like cannot be fixed by pretending it is and trying to force others to do likewise. It can be made better by increasing their opportunities. But this phrase doesn’t primarily mean government training. It means clearing away obstacles like artificially high minimum wages that stop people from finding work at all, so they can’t improve their skills and get a raise, promotion, or better job.
Nor is it true that “workers” will have more money in their folksy “pockets,” because pushing up the price of your labour sounds great, if you keep your job, until you realize everyone else’s rises too. As Hazlitt also famously said, “The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.”
Why? Because “most minimum wage workers are not primary breadwinners in their households,” Eisen and Palacios found in their study. So put away the hankies; “just 2.2 percent of minimum wage workers are single parents with a child or children under the age of 18.” Instead “53 percent … are between the ages of 15 and 24.”
These jobs aren’t careers. They’re stepping-stones to careers, or extra family money. And Ford just made them harder to get onto. Which benefits nobody but organized labour, the real Scrooge here, greedily rigging labour markets so those already doing well can do better at the expense of the marginalized.
If Ford thinks he can raise everyone’s income by regulatory fiat, he’s an even bigger fool than he sounded above. If he’s just pretending to buy votes, ditto because the union bosses won’t back him next time either.
Ugh.