Stroke Deaths Expected to Rise 50 Percent by 2050, Says Study

In 2021, one in six deaths in the United States from cardiovascular disease was due to stroke.

A brain scan showing an atrophied brain. Atthapon Raksthaput/Shutterstock

Deaths due to stroke could jump by 50 percent over the next three decades, with low and middle-income nations poised to account for 91 percent of such deaths, according to a new report.

A stroke, also called a brain attack, takes place when the blood supply to a part of the brain gets blocked or when a blood vessel in the brain bursts. In both these situations, parts of the brain can either become damaged or die. A stroke can result in lasting brain damage, long-term disability, and also death. In 2020, stroke was responsible for 6.6 million deaths globally and was the second leading cause of death. An Oct. 9 report from the World Stroke Organization–Lancet Neurology Commission estimates this number to rise by 50 percent to 9.7 million by 2050.

“We project an increase in the absolute number of stroke deaths in people aged 60 years or older (from 5·6 million) in 2020, to 8·8 million in 2050, probably due to ageing of the population” it said.

“By contrast, the number of deaths in people younger than 60 years in 2050 is predicted to be roughly the same as that in 2020.”

There is a wide gulf in stroke deaths between high-income countries (HIC) and low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), a difference the report expects to increase over the coming decades.

“The absolute number of people who are projected to die from stroke will only slightly decrease in HICs and will sharply increase in LMICs.”

In 2020, 86 percent of global deaths due to stroke occurred in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), a number that is projected to rise to 91 percent by 2050. By this time, HICs will only account for 9 percent of global stroke deaths.

Out of the 9.7 million stroke deaths in 2050, 4.9 million will take place in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania region. South Asia is expected to see 1.6 million deaths. Age-standardized death rates are projected to drop in Central Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe.

The report attributed the high burden of stroke in LMICs to multiple factors like undetected and uncontrolled hypertension, lack of easily accessible health services, and unhealthy lifestyles.

By the mid-21st century, 52.4 percent of stroke deaths would be caused due to intracerebral hemorrhage or bleeding into the brain tissue, according to the report.

“The main risk factor for stroke—and particularly for intracerebral haemorrhage—is hypertension.” As such, “our projections support a call for improving prevention and treatment of hypertension.”

The report expects economic costs due to stroke incidents to surge over the coming decades. “The estimated aggregate economic costs of stroke, including direct costs and income losses, range from $746 billion to $1.08 trillion in 2017 prices. But by 2050, these costs are projected to rise to between $880 billion and US$2.31 trillion in 2017 prices.”

“However, this increase can be avoided because stroke is highly preventable and treatable,” it said while suggesting implementing preventive measures like boosting public awareness and emphasizing a change in lifestyle to minimize the risks of stroke.

Strokes in the US

In 2021, one in six deaths in the United States from cardiovascular disease was due to stroke, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Almost one in four strokes occur among people who have previously had a stroke.

“Every 40 seconds, someone in the United States has a stroke. Every 3 minutes and 14 seconds, someone dies of stroke,” it said. “Every year, more than 795,000 people in the United States have a stroke. About 610,000 of these are first or new strokes.”

Stroke is the leading cause of serious long-term disability in the country. It cuts down mobility in over half of stroke survivors aged 65 and older. The death rate for stroke rose from 38.8 per 100,000 people in 2020 to 41.1 in 2021.

There is also an ethnic difference in the risk of stroke. Non-Hispanic Black adults are at two times more risk than White adults.

There are two types of stroke—ischemic and hemorrhagic. Most strokes are ischemic strokes, which occur when blood clots or other particles block the blood vessels in the brain. Fatty deposits called plaque can also cause such blockages.

A hemorrhagic stroke takes place when an artery in the brain leaks blood or breaks open. The leaked blood ends up putting too much pressure on the brain cells, eventually damaging them.

Signs of stroke include sudden numbness or weakness in the face, arm, or leg, especially on one side of the body. The person may find themselves confused and face difficulty speaking or understanding speech.

There can be sudden trouble seeing in one or both eyes. Sudden intense headaches without a known cause, difficulty in walking, loss of balance, lack of coordination, and dizziness are other symptoms of stroke. The CDC recommends people call 911 “right away” if such symptoms are visible.

“The stroke treatments that work best are available only if the stroke is recognized and diagnosed within 3 hours of the first symptoms. Stroke patients may not be eligible for these if they don’t arrive at the hospital in time,” the CDC warns while advising people who suspect a stroke to not drive to a hospital by themselves.

An August 2023 study found that sedentary time in children is linked to heart attacks and strokes later in life.

“Our study indicates that the accumulation of inactive time is related to heart damage regardless of body weight and blood pressure,” said study author Dr. Andrew Agbaje of the University of Eastern Finland, according to an Aug. 23 press release.

“Parents should encourage children and teenagers to move more by taking them out for a walk and limiting time spent on social media and video games.”