Grade Inflation Falling but Half of Top Grades ‘Unexplained’: Universities Regulator

Grade Inflation Falling but Half of Top Grades ‘Unexplained’: Universities Regulator
Graduates attending a graduation ceremony at a UK university on July 16, 2008. Chris Ison/PA Media
Alexander Zhang
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Grade inflation at English universities has fallen for the first time in a decade, but half of the top degrees awarded to students last year cannot be explained by their prior attainment or choice of subject, according to the UK’s higher education regulator.

In a report published on Thursday, the Office for Students (OfS) said that 32.8 percent of students across 144 institutions were awarded a first class degree in 2021–2022.

It represented a drop of 4.6 percent from the previous year, when it stood at 37.4 percent.

It marks the first time that the OfS has observed a fall in the number of first class degrees since 2010–2011 and comes after universities in England pledged last July to reverse degree inflation.

But the number of first class degrees was still more than double the figure in 2010–2011, when they stood at 15.4 percent, and have not dropped to pre-pandemic levels.

The OfS also said that half of first class degrees awarded are “unexplained by statistical modelling.”

“Of the 32.8 percent of students awarded first class degrees, 16.4 percent were unexplained after the OfS accounted for various observable factors—including students’ prior entry qualifications and subject of study—which may affect their attainment,” the OfS said.

‘Not Out of the Woods Yet’

Susan Lapworth, chief executive of the OfS, welcomed the progress in tackling grade inflation but said more needs to be done.

She said: “We’re not out of the woods yet as half of first class degrees cannot be explained by students’ entry qualifications or the subject of study.

“Inflation of grades that does not reflect actual student achievement is bad for students, graduates, and employers, and risks undermining the reputation of English higher education in the UK and beyond.”

Ms. Lapworth said the OfS was “encouraged” to see a reduction in the proportion of unexplained top grades but urged universities and colleges to “continue to take the steps necessary to protect the value of their qualifications.”

She added: “We recognise there are likely to be a range of factors—including improved teaching—that could lead to an increase in the number of firsts awarded. But the sustained increase in unexplained firsts and upper second-class degrees since 2010/11 continues to cause us concern.

“Students, graduates, and employers must have confidence that degrees awarded represent a reliable assessment of achievement, with qualifications remaining credible throughout a student’s career.”

The COVID Effect

There has been a rise in degree grade inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic following the introduction of measures to mitigate the impact of lockdown disruptions on students’ studies.

Universities in 2019–2020—the first year of the pandemic—adopted “no detriment” or safety net assessment policies, which tended to ensure students would not receive a final grade lower than the university’s most recent assessment of their work.

While “blanket ‘no detriment’” policies were not in place in 2020–2021, other assessment changes, such as open-book exams, remained.

In July 2022, Universities UK (UUK) and GuildHE—which represent 197 UK universities—pledged to return the proportion of top degrees to pre-pandemic levels.

OfS Chairman James Wharton said in May this year that the regulator is considering taking action over the “significant” grade inflation.

Lord Wharton told the Industry and Regulators Committee in the House of Lords: “Students quite like getting firsts, so in the short term, individual students who are studying now might quite like their chances being enhanced. But it may well not be in their interest in the long term if it undermines the value of the thing they have earned and worked so hard for.”

The Conservative peer acknowledged that the OfS has “not taken sufficient action over a very long period of time” but said the regulator is now looking at what actions can be taken to address the issue, including investigations.

Universities could be required to retain an “appropriate selection” of graded work from students as evidence for investigators to consider, he added.

PA Media contributed to this report.