The Georgia Senate race is a critical one the nation will watch closely on Tuesday night. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock has spent $90 million or more this election cycle, much of it in ads attacking Republican Herschel Walker. Still, he hasn’t managed to lift his own numbers over 50 percent.
Some late polls have even shown a narrow lead for Walker, the former Georgia Bulldogs football star making his first run for office. Most political analysts rate the race a toss-up. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Warnock with a 1.6 percent lead, but five of the last six significant polls show Walker ahead.
Four of the five were within the margin of error, but the fifth, Rasmussen, poll of 1,053 likely voters on Oct. 23 and 24, showed Walker up by 5 percent. A sixth, the New York Times/Siena Poll, taken between Oct. 24 and 27, showed Warnock up by 3 percent.
According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Warnock raised $123.5 million this election cycle through Oct. 19; Walker raised $37.8 million. Warnock reported $10.4 million cash on hand, while Walker reported $5.4 million.
Georgia’s hard-fought Senate races have become very expensive. FEC figures show that the four major-party candidates in two Senate races in 2020, both of which had a runoff in January 2021, spent almost half a billion dollars between them.
Walker has held his ground despite the opposition’s campaign dredging up scandal upon scandal from his personal life: allegations of domestic violence and emotional instability, video of his ex-wife describing how he held a gun to her head, revelations of children he fathered and hadn’t previously acknowledged, and abortions the pro-life candidate allegedly paid or asked for.
“He’s like Teflon. Nothing sticks to him,” Marci McCarthy, chairwoman of the DeKalb County Republican Party, told The Epoch Times. “Going to a Herschel event, it’s like going to a rock concert. People come from all over Georgia to get a glimpse of him or get a picture taken with him. He’s a crowd-pleaser. He loves connecting with the people.”
Walker also had some ammunition to use against Warnock, notably a police video taken of Warnock’s ex-wife after she made a domestic violence call in March 2020, accusing him of having run over her foot with his car. After an investigation, police did not charge Warnock. The video has been a mainstay of Walker’s ads.
While not a smooth speaker, Walker delivered a stronger-than-expected debate performance on Oct. 14 against Warnock. As pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Martin Luther King Jr. preached, Warnock is an orator far more experienced than Walker. The two had fenced for months over a debate, each accusing the other of ducking out, until Warnock finally agreed to Walker’s proposal of a single debate in Savannah, Warnock’s hometown. Walker worked relentlessly during the debate to tie Warnock to President Joe Biden’s unpopular policies amidst an ailing economy.
Voters have coalesced around the economy and inflation as their top issues nationally, leading to a rising tide that is helping float Republican boats. Walker may benefit, though neither candidate has reached Georgia’s required victory threshold of 50 percent in the polls. The few percent likely to go to Libertarian Chase Oliver could throw the race into a runoff regardless of who wins.
A runoff may not be necessary, however, as McCarthy, from her reading of the numbers and feel for how things are going, said Walker could still get to the 50 percent mark by Election Night.
Georgia has had record early voting since it began on Oct. 17. McCarthy said indicators look good for Republicans. She said Republicans, if they vote early—though many prefer Election Day— tend to do it later in the early-voting cycle. So far, she said on Wednesday: early voters solidly or leaning Republican had already doubled turnout from the 2018 midterm election.
“All signals are showing a shift for a strong Republican turnout,” she said. “We’re feeling it on the ground with our canvassing. We’re feeling it on the ground with our phone banking. We’re feeling it with our outreach and our signs.”
She said that middle-aged and older voters have been showing up more than younger voters, who tend to vote Democratic. Democrats historically dominate early voting in Georgia while Republicans make their force felt on Election Day, so good numbers during early voting are a good sign for the GOP, she said.
McCarthy said she’s sensed Democrats not trying as hard in the parts of her county where Republicans are most active, nor working down-ballot state legislative races in those areas. “We don’t see them out canvassing, which they’re usually good at,” she said.
