Australia-based Yuan Hongbing, a former law professor at Peking University, has a unique perspective on the CCP and its leader Xi Jinping. In a recent exclusive interview on The Epoch Times’ Pinnacle View program, Mr. Yuan said he believes that a war in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable because of Mr. Xi’s idealist goal of CCP dominance.
Since the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine War, China–Taiwan relations have become a global political and economic focus, and political analysts and pundits are divided on whether or not the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will launch an invasion of Taiwan, and when it will start. Professor Yuan Hongbing, who is well-versed in the CCP’s mentality and has had direct contact with Xi Jinping, shared his insight. He believes that understanding Mr. Xi’s thinking and reasoning is critical in discussions around China’s potential war with Taiwan.
The West’s Failure to Understand the Psychology of Dictators
Mr. Yuan said he believes that U.S. Army General Mark Milley’s theory of a China–Taiwan war in 2027 represents a common misunderstanding in the international community. This is because most of the judgments and analyses were based on comparing military power, without studying and analyzing the psychology and will typical of a dictator.Mr. Yuan said, “They tend to analyze problems from the perspective of a normal, rational person. So they arrive at all sorts of conclusions that fail to reflect the dictator’s mentality.”
Mr. Yuan explained that two characteristics generally plague a dictator’s thinking and behavior: one is extreme subjectivity in their reasoning and the other is irrationality in their decisions.
He cited Hitler’s unexpected move to start two battlefronts in World War II and Mao Zedong’s unexpected involvement in the Korean War as examples. Both dictators’ decisions on war exceeded the judgment of the international community at the time. For instance, Hitler launched an invasion of the Soviet Union while still fighting a war on the Western front, which eventually led to Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II; and at the beginning of the Korean War, the famous U.S. General MacArthur also made a misjudgment against China.
Mr. Yuan said: “U.S. General MacArthur believed that it was impossible for the CCP to send troops into Korea because the CCP lacked a modern air force and navy, and had an extremely ill-equipped army. Therefore, it could not fight a modern war with the United States. However, Mao Zedong actually sent millions of Chinese troops into Korea to fight.”
Mr. Yuan further cited a shocking speech by Mao Zedong at a conference with international communist leaders in 1957. In his speech, Mao Zedong claimed that he was prepared to fight a nuclear war with the Soviet Union against the United States, even if it costs the lives of half of China’s 600 million people and half of the world’s 2.7 billion population. Mao Zedong said that it would be worth it for a communist victory.
Mr. Yuan recalled a conversation he had with Mr. Xi in the 1980s in which Mr. Xi expressed the same view as Mao Zedong on the large number of Chinese soldiers killed in the Battle of Changjin Lake during the Korean War.
He said, “Xi Jinping believes that despite losing so many men, [China] defeated the United States and drove them out of North Korea, which was a huge strategic victory worthy of the sacrifice.”
He said that Mr. Xi’s domestic and foreign affairs decisions over the past decade or so have been like a mini-replica of Mao Zedong’s. Every decision that Xi has made has been irrational and even self-destructive in some situations.
He said, “In the past decade or so of his (Mr. Xi’s) rule, he has made many devastating decisions on domestic policy. The three-year extreme COVID lockdown was one example. He made choices that were foolish and destructive.”
Another example was the CCP’s far-left policy of supporting state-owned enterprises and cracking down on private businesses since Mr. Xi came to power.
Upholding Mao’s Ideals
Mr. Yuan explained that after the Cultural Revolution, the CCP went through a ten-year struggle between the hardliners and the reformists. The totalitarian hardliners, led by Deng Xiaoping, insisted on adhering to the principles of Maoist communism with the CCP elites in control of China’s economic lifeline.
At the same time post-Cultural Revolution, a group of conscientious reformists within the CCP was led by Hu Yaobang, the former CCP General Secretary who was purged from power later on. This faction not only tried to correct some of the mistakes of the Cultural Revolution but also attempted to conduct a comprehensive political reform and rethinking of the CCP.
Mr. Yuan said: “It was from 1978 to 1987 when Hu Yaobang actually promoted the liberalization of thought in China. It included the abolition of the largest concentration camp in human history, the People’s Commune, and the initial steps toward economic reform were all implemented along with the liberalization of thought and ideas.”
The policies forwarded by the reformist faction eventually hit the red line for the hardliners led by Deng Xiaoping and Bo Yibo. Although Mr. Deng and others were also persecuted during the Cultural Revolution, they fundamentally wanted to defend the CCP’s tyranny because their own power and interests came from the CCP’s tyrannical rule established by Mao Zedong.
Mr. Yuan said: “The conflicts within the CCP led to a collision between the two trends of thought, and this collision started with the purge of Hu Yaobang in 1987. It eventually led to the hardliners ordering the military to massacre thousands of people in 1989 (Tiananmen Square Massacre) using the justification of ‘stabilizing the country for the next decades to come.’ This completely interrupted the progress made under Hu Yaobang.”
Since then, China’s so-called “Reform and Opening up” was in fact a deformed economic drive under Deng Xiaoping’s rule, leaving the CCP’s political assets intact. This has resulted in the present-day CCP’s powerful economy and wealthy elites.
Mr. Yuan believes that Mr. Xi is a typical figure raised under the Cultural Revolution. Even though Mr. Xi himself was oppressed during the Cultural Revolution, his mind was brainwashed by Mr. Mao’s communist fundamentalism, and he knows nothing except Mao’s extremist political philosophy of the Cultural Revolution.
Extremist Ideology Shaped Xi’s Will to Conquer Taiwan
Mr. Yuan, a former drinking buddy of Mr. Xi, had direct observations of Mr. Xi’s personal character and ideology due to their close interactions.He said, “I think Xi Jinping as an individual had some good qualities, such as he was quite loyal and straightforward with people, and will not take advantage of others, etc.”
According to Mr. Yuan, unlike other CCP officials, a distinctive feature of Mr. Xi’s character was his extreme communist ideals.
He further explained: “What was his ideology? His ideology was the communist sentiment that Mao Zedong injected into his mind during the Cultural Revolution. I had the impression that this dangerous ideology was deeply engraved in his soul and he seemed determined to somehow achieve this idealistic goal. That was an important characteristic in his personality.”
Mr. Yuan believes that all of Mr. Xi’s acts, driven by his communist ideology, are like a mirror image of Mao Zedong. In the future, Mr. Xi will use all his political and military power to achieve his global ambitions, and he seemed determined on starting a war against Taiwan.
Mr. Yuan explained: “Domestically, he will certainly bring China back to the Mao era. On the international level, he will consolidate China’s economic power gained by Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin’s corruption-based capitalism and transform such power into political and military capabilities for the global expansion of totalitarianism.”
He went on to say: “Therefore, launching a war against Taiwan can almost be seen as his destiny, not only imposing a war on a free Taiwan and the world but also involving all Chinese people in his twisted totalitarian militarist plot.”
Towards the end of his interview on the Pinnacle View, Mr. Yuan said: “So what will be the endgame for this regime? I believe the day [Xi] starts a war against Taiwan will also be the beginning of the collapse of Xi Jinping’s dictatorship and the collapse of the evil CCP regime. It can also be said that this might be the final duel in a hundred years between communism and the rest of the world.”
