Economy

First Quarter GDP Prints Down 1.4 Percent; Likely an Import Anomaly

First Quarter GDP Prints Down 1.4 Percent; Likely an Import Anomaly
A sailboat passes cargo containers stacked at the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest container port, in San Pedro, Calif., on Oct. 15, 2021. Mario Tama/Getty Images
J.G. Collins
|Updated:
  • Topline GDP printed down 1.4 percent versus a consensus estimate of  1.1 percent up.
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were sharply lower, year-on-year, as the economy normalizes
  • The backlog of container ships that stood offshore at the end of last year has largely been cleared, and the U.S. has imported more oil and gas at higher prices, having a negative effect on the net exports (NEX) component of GDP and pushing the entire GDP print negative.
  • Given that anomaly, the Federal Reserve is still likely to push rates higher when it meets May 4-6.
  • Gross domestic investment (GDI) dropped as rates increased and concerns about business conditions increase.

DATA SUMMARY

This morning’s print of 2022 first quarter GDP (2022Q1)  largely disappointed observers, including us, who had anticipated a higher print. (We had anticipated a print of 1 to 1.5 percent  in our jobs report at the beginning of the month.)
PCE, the traditional driver of GDP, dropped considerably from the comparable quarter last year, but was up slightly from last quarter.

SOURCE: The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy © from Bureau of Economic Analysis Data

J.G. Collins
J.G. Collins
Author
J.G. Collins is managing director of the Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, a strategic advisory, market survey, and consulting firm in New York. His writings on economics, trade, politics, and public policy have appeared in Forbes, the New York Post, Crain’s New York Business, The Hill, The American Conservative, and other publications.
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