Federal Agency Warns Widespread Severe Weather Threat With Strong Tornadoes Could Impact Millions in Central US

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center warned that a "large area of severe potential will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning" that will affect the eastern portions of the Plains states, stretching to the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.  NOAA

Officials say a widespread severe weather threat with strong tornadoes may impact about a dozen states from the Midwest to the South on Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center warned that a “large area of severe potential will exist from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning” that will affect the eastern portions of the Plains states, stretching to the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.

“Strong tornadoes and particularly damaging winds are expected. Both afternoon and overnight potential will exist across various regions, including the risk of dangerous nighttime tornadoes,” it said on Monday.

A map posted by the agency shows that there is moderate risk of thunderstorms and severe weather, including tornadoes, in Springfield, Missouri; Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Davenport, Iowa; and Iowa City, Iowa, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also a moderate risk of severe weather in a swath spanning from southeastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas and southern Missouri.

There is an enhanced risk of severe weather in St. Louis, Missouri; Madison, Wisconsin; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Des Moines, Iowa, the agency said. Chicago, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Tulsa could see tornadoes as well, according to the Storm Prediction Center, noting there is a “slight” chance of one occurring in those areas.

“The area near the warm front and later in late into the overnight hours ahead of the surface low will be a favored area for supercells and tornadoes,” the center wrote Monday. “Storms are expected to form from northern [Missouri] into [Iowa] during the late afternoon, shifting northeastward with the warm.” It added that “low-level shear will be extremely favorable for tornadoes” and that “strong tornadoes” are possible.

“This threat may persist farther northeast into southern [Wisconsin] and northern [Illinois] into the night as the warm and unstable air with the warm front continues to move north with this strong system,” the agency warned.

According to the map, at least 16 states in the central United States may face severe weather. That includes all of Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois, as well as much of Iowa, and portions of Indiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

A car is upturned in a Kroger parking lot after a severe storm swept through Little Rock, Ark., on March 31, 2023. Andrew DeMillo/AP Photo

Forecasters with AccuWeather and other services noted that Tuesday’s severe storms will be similar to last Friday, when a large tornado hammered Little Rock and other areas, leaving dozens of people dead.

“Nearly 50 million people are already at risk for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night alone,” says AccuWeather. But it noted that there is severe weather “is likely to continue on Wednesday farther to the east, the number may grow to 100 million or more.”

“The threat of powerful thunderstorms, including tornadoes, will extend past dark and could peak during the first half of the night before continuing into the pre-dawn hours in the Midwest. The nocturnal tornado threat will add to the danger from the fast-moving severe weather,” it noted.

Friday’s storms tore a path through Little Rock and also collapsed the roof of a packed concert venue in Illinois, stunning people throughout the region with the scope of the damage. The number of deaths continued to grow Sunday, officials said.

“While we are still assessing the full extent of the damage, we know families across America are mourning the loss of loved ones, desperately waiting for news of others fighting for their lives, and sorting through the rubble of their homes and businesses,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.

Biden earlier declared broad areas of the country major disaster areas, making federal resources and financial aid available for recovery. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas, where at least five people were killed, already had declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.