The outcome of the Ukraine war will depend on Ukrainian blood and American communications tech, said David Ignatius, a German Marshall Fund board member.
Ignatius spoke at a fund discussion on the “Foreign Policy of Technology”, along with diplomat and former U.S. Marine officer Nate Fick.
Ukraine is just one of many areas where technology may decide the victors, Fick and Ignatius agreed.
But today, the contours of digital space favor America’s enemies, they said.
“[America’s internet policy] has ended up empowering the governments that control information like China and Russia, which squeeze their citizens more and has made life harder for the countries that have open information,” Ignatius said.
The internet also plays a major role in national conflicts, said Fick. The war in Ukraine has allowed the world a view of new tech in war, he said.
Russian hackers have attempted to break Ukraine’s communications and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine has cooperated with Microsoft to deploy patches that blunt these attacks, Ignatius said.
War in the Air
Over the battlefield, satellite communications have directed Ukraine’s artillery and bombs, Ignatius added.For now, Russians lack the sophistication to counter Western technology, he said. But it might not always be that way. Russian cyber expert Andrey Krutskikh told him cyber warfare has reached a tipping point like 1948—the year before the Soviets created their own atomic bombs.
“You think we’re living in 2016,” Ignatius recalled Krutskikh saying. “No, we’re living in 1948.”
Fick and Ignatius agreed they support the free flow of online information that America has. But they noted that it’s easier for America’s enemies to manipulate this free system than for America to impact its enemies’ controlled systems.
To beat China and Russia, America should work with allies worldwide, Fick said. But diplomats should frame that collaboration as something that benefits participants, he added.
“We want middle-ground states to align with us but do it for the good of their own people,” said Fick.
Building Battlefields
To tackle technology issues, America needs to build up its institutions, Fick said.“First and foremost, that means attracting great people and rewarding them for service in the area of tech diplomacy,” he said.
Furthermore, if America doesn’t continue to engage with international organizations like the UN’s International Communication Union, China and Russia will, Fick added.
“The real work is happening at posts and missions around the world. That’s happening on the proverbial and literal front lines,” he said.
Fick also noted that even more game-changing technologies lie on the horizon. Against the odds, America beat China in developing 5G broadband communications. But 6G is around the corner.
The future may also yield even more frightening possibilities. Ignatius, also a journalist at the Washington Post, interviewed foreign policy expert Henry Kissinger on Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Kissinger theorized that AI could fight wars like a chess-playing computer, leaving human planners helpless.
“We'll have a diabolical kind of warfare,” Kissinger warned Ignatius.