IN-DEPTH: How Drone Warfare Is Shaping the Ukraine-Russia War

IN-DEPTH: How Drone Warfare Is Shaping the Ukraine-Russia War
A Ukrainian serviceman flies a drone on the outskirts of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine on Dec. 30, 2022. SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images
Adam Morrow
Updated:
Russian air defenses foiled an airborne drone attack—the third in two months—just outside Moscow on June 21, according to officials.
Three Ukrainian drones were destroyed after approaching sensitive facilities in the Moscow area, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. The Russian press later reported that the attack had been aimed at an infantry division based a mere 35 miles from the Kremlin.
The Epoch Times was unable to verify Moscow’s assertions. Kyiv dismissed claims that it was responsible.
Nevertheless, the episode illustrates the increasingly central role played by drones in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which is about to enter its 16th month.
“Drones have been widely used in previous conflicts, especially the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Abdullah Agar, a prominent Turkish military commentator, told The Epoch Times.
“But they have never been used so extensively—or over such a wide theater—as in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
According to Agar, a former special forces officer, the war has revolutionized drone technology and tactics, “changing the way modern conflicts are fought.” 
A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)
A specialist inspects the damaged facade of a multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 30, 2023. Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images

Changing Tactics

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) perform a range of vital battlefield functions, providing real-time images from the front and relaying actionable intelligence back to their operators. 
They also play crucial combat roles, such as striking targets behind enemy lines, disabling military infrastructure and vehicles, and assassinating enemy leaders.
“Drones have different functions and capabilities,” Agar said. “They can be used for a range of battlefield purposes—tactical, operational, and strategic.”
On the same day as the incident in Moscow, an Israeli drone killed three Palestinian militants in the West Bank in response to an attack that left four Israeli settlers dead.
The U.S. military has been experimenting with drone technology since the 1930s, when it began remotely piloting radio-controlled aircraft. In the nine decades since, drone technology—and tactics—have advanced exponentially. 
The use of combat drones became widespread during the U.S.-led “war on terror,” which followed the 9/11 attacks in 2001. 
During this phase, medium-altitude drones were deployed in asymmetric conflicts in places such as Yemen and Afghanistan against adversaries who lacked effective air defenses.
“Drones can be used very effectively when enemy air defenses are weak or nonexistent,” Agar said. “But they’re not so effective against capable air defenses, for which they represent easy targets.”
A Bayraktar Akinci unmanned combat aerial vehicle at Teknofest aerospace and technology festival in Baku, Azerbaijan, on May 27, 2022. (Aziz Karimov/Reuters)
A Bayraktar Akinci unmanned combat aerial vehicle at Teknofest aerospace and technology festival in Baku, Azerbaijan, on May 27, 2022. Aziz Karimov/Reuters

Countermeasures

When Russian troops first entered Ukraine early in 2022, the lack of air cover made them vulnerable to Kyiv’s medium-altitude UAVs, especially Turkish-made Bayraktar drones.
Since then, however, Russian forces have consolidated their front-line positions and developed effective countermeasures against Ukrainian drones.
“Initially, the Russians were totally unprepared for the Bayraktars,” Agar said. 
“But they’ve become much more adept at electronic jamming techniques and have learned how to neutralize medium-altitude drones.”
According to the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think tank devoted to security issues, Ukraine is now losing roughly 10,000 drones per month on the battlefield.
Russia has invested heavily in drone technology since the conflict began, making several notable additions to its fleet of armed UAVs.
These include its Lancet-class attack drone, which has swiftly evolved—in terms of range, endurance, and payload size—since its battlefield debut last summer. 
Now, from behind fortified lines, Russian forces are relying on drones to blunt a long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive that began early this month.
Following one recent clash in the Zaporizhzhia region, Moscow released video footage purporting to show an advanced IRIS-T air-defense system being struck by a Russian drone.
The IRIS-T, which was recently given to Ukraine by Germany, was hit by the Lancet’s latest iteration, the Lancet-3, Russian commentators have said.
However, Kyiv has yet to confirm the loss of the air-defense system.
Drones during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in an undated photo. (Iranian Army/West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters)
Drones during a military exercise in an undisclosed location in Iran, in an undated photo. Iranian Army/West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters

Exhausting Defenses

In October 2022, Russia began staging frequent strikes on critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine. 
While Kyiv says the barrages constitute war crimes, Moscow claims to be using precision munitions to avoid civilian casualties.
Often conducted in waves, these attacks rely heavily on “Kamikaze” drones, such as the Iranian-made Shahed-136, which explode upon hitting their targets.
Russia launched a fresh wave of strikes on June 20, targeting both Kyiv and the western city of Lviv, Ukraine. According to Ukrainian officials, the latest attack included 30 Shahed drones, 28 of which were successfully downed.
Moscow, for its part, accuses Kyiv of exaggerating the effectiveness of its air defenses.
The wide use of drones in these attacks allows Russian operators to find gaps in Ukrainian air defenses while forcing defenders to exhaust their supply of munitions.
In this regard, according to Agar, drones have an “excellent cost-benefit ratio.”
“The enemy is forced to resort to costly air-defense systems to neutralize much less expensive drones,” he said.
“That’s why Kyiv’s allies are providing advanced air-defense systems. To stop advanced UAVs, you need advanced air defenses.”
A still image taken from video shows a flying object exploding in an intense burst of light near the dome of the Kremlin Senate building during a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 3, 2023. (Ostorozhno Novosti/Handout via Reuters)
A still image taken from video shows a flying object exploding in an intense burst of light near the dome of the Kremlin Senate building during a reported drone attack in Moscow on May 3, 2023. Ostorozhno Novosti/Handout via Reuters

Drones Over Moscow

However, the Russians aren’t the only ones making effective use of combat drones.
“The Ukrainians also rely heavily on UAVs,” Agar said. “Along with Bayraktars, they’re using U.S.-made Switchblade drones and drones supplied by the UK.” 
The opening phase of the conflict was largely dominated by the use of medium-altitude combat drones. But as Russia learned to counter these, Kyiv turned to smaller UAVs, including many intended for civilian use. 
“The Ukrainians often employ cheap, commercially available drones, which they modify by adding an explosive payload,” Agar said. “But these perform poorly when faced with strong air defenses or effective jamming systems.”
On several occasions, UAVs have been used to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. 
Notably, last week’s drone attack in Moscow was hardly the first of its kind.
On May 3, the Kremlin itself was briefly threatened by a pair of incoming drones. Less than a month later, three residential buildings in Moscow were damaged after being struck by a group of UAVs.
Russia blamed both attacks on Kyiv, which—in typical fashion—denied its involvement. 
Agar, for his part, is unconvinced that the drones that managed to threaten Moscow were of Ukrainian origin.
“Kyiv typically uses shorter-range drones that couldn’t reach the Russian capital,” he said, noting that they were most likely launched from “somewhere inside Russian territory.” 
A view shows smoke rising following an alleged drone attack in Sevastopol, Crimea, April 29, 2023. (Stringer/REUTERS)
A view shows smoke rising following an alleged drone attack in Sevastopol, Crimea, April 29, 2023. Stringer/REUTERS

Simple Economics

Moscow hasn’t been the only target of long-range drone strikes in recent months.
In December 2022, three airbases—all inside Russian territory—were targeted by UAVs. Several servicemen were killed and a number of aircraft were damaged, including some equipped to carry nuclear weapons. 
While Kyiv refrained from claiming responsibility, the attacks were hailed by Ukrainian officials.
Last month, pro-Ukrainian forces staged a brief cross-border assault on Russia’s Belgorod region. According to Russian officials, the attackers employed small commercial “quadcopter” drones to drop explosives on targets. 
Nor have all drone attacks against Russia been airborne.
In October 2022, the Port of Sevastopol—home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet—was attacked by both air and waterborne drones that damaged a minesweeping vessel.
At the time, Moscow accused Kyiv of staging the attack with the help of “British specialists”—a claim that drew spirited denials from London.
A similar attack on Sevastopol, this time featuring unmanned speedboats, was repulsed by Russian naval forces in April. 
Ukraine’s defense industry has been feverishly designing and building new attack drones of its own.
On June 20, Ukroboronprom, Ukraine’s state-run arms manufacturer, said it had successfully tested a new UAV with a 620-mile range and a 75-kilogram payload.
Agar largely attributes the heavy reliance on drones—by both sides—to simple economics. 
“Russia has a vast arsenal of strategic weapons, including ballistic missiles,” he said. “But these are extremely expensive and very difficult to replace.
“Because the conflict shows little sign of ending soon, both sides want to use the weapons they have as economically as possible.”