COVID-19 Deaths This Winter Comparable to Pre-Pandemic Flu and Pneumonia Deaths: ONS

People wearing masks walk past a UK government advert encouraging people to book a COVID-19 booster vaccine, in an undated file photo. Dominic Lipinski/PA

The number of winter deaths from COVID-19 in England and Wales has dropped to similar levels to those from flu and pneumonia before the pandemic, an official analysis shows.

The analysis, published on Monday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows that 11,636 deaths occurred from COVID-19 between December 2020 to March 2022, compared to the number from the previous winter (61,764). COVID-19 is the disease caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus.

The number is now “more in line” with the numbers of winter deaths from flu and pneumonia during the last decade (around 10,000 to 14,000), the analysis shows.

But it still doubles the number of flu and pneumonia deaths this winter (5,917), as the latter fell to record lows during the pandemic.

The analysis notes that there has been a “sharp rise in excess deaths” during the winter of 2020/2021, when the Delta variant took hold in the UK, with deaths from both COVID-19 and flu and pneumonia (71,250) far exceeding those owing to flu and pneumonia alone in pre-pandemic years.

However, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 this winter was less than half of those involving flu and pneumonia.

The ONS defines deaths “due to COVID-19” as deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19, while deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate are categorised as deaths “involving COVID-19.” The same principle applies to flu and pneumonia deaths.

In the week ending April 1, around 62 percent of deaths involving COVID-19 were owing to the disease, down from 90 percent in spring 2020 and the early part of 2021.

Among deaths involving flu and pneumonia in the week ending April 1, 20 percent died from the diseases, similar to most weeks since March 2021.

The analysis also shows that during the pandemic, the monthly average age of death from flu and pneumonia fluctuated between 83 and 85, while the average age of death from COVID-19 was between 74 and 84.

Around 73.7 percent of deaths from flu and pneumonia in England and Wales occurred among those aged 80 years and over between March 2020 and March 2020, compared with 58.3 of deaths owing to COVID-19, the analysis said.

The ONS also said those aged between 40 and 79 suffered the sharpest increase of death from the CCP virus compared to flu and pneumonia.

But young children (14-year-olds and under) only accounted for 0.03 percent of deaths from COVID-19, compared with 0.16 percent of deaths from flu and pneumonia.

The ONS noted that the analysis has limitations such as possibly underestimating flu deaths because not all patients are tested for flu.