Winning a party leadership race and winning a general election are two very different things. Policies that appeal to the party faithful may appear unsellable to a large segment of the population.
Newly minted conservative leaders Pierre Poilievre and Danielle Smith must now figure out the balancing act between staying true to their leadership campaign promises and presenting a winning political product to the electorate. There can be no doubt that self-styled political experts were whispering into the ears of both new leaders and counselling them to pivot from their leadership stances the moment they won their respective races.
It appears both leaders have resisted the temptation to backtrack. So far, at least.
Neither Erin O’Toole nor Jason Kenney left their roles as party leaders willingly. They were both ignominiously turfed by their own party compatriots. In O’Toole’s case, it was by his caucus, and in Kenney’s case by the party membership in a general vote. In both cases, it was because the leaders were perceived to have promised high while delivering low on conservative principles. Poilievre and Smith will surely be keeping the fate of their predecessors in mind when considering any changes to their policy stances.
O’Toole flip-flopped on several key planks of his leadership campaign almost as soon as he won the race. Promises to end the carbon tax, defund the CBC, repeal the most recent firearm bans, and allow free votes among MPs went out the window, much to the chagrin of Conservative Party members. When O’Toole’s abandonment of conservative principles failed to lead to electoral gains in the 2021 federal election, party members were unforgiving.
Kenney’s ejection from the leadership was a slower process but no less decisive as he could only gain a mere 51 percent support from the membership in a hard-fought leadership review. He had won Alberta’s premiership over the NDP as a reformer who would return conservative values to the provincial government and fight Ottawa for provincial rights. Upon becoming premier, he struck several commissions and committees such as the “Fair Deal” panel to examine ways for the province to stand up to the federal government. He then shelved pretty much all the panel recommendations. When Kenney flip-flopped on a promise never to impose vaccine passports upon citizens, members had had enough. They removed him as the party leader as soon as they had the chance.
Many pundits in Ottawa and Alberta have been anticipating if not demanding both Smith and Poilievre pivot to the left from their leadership platforms. It’s hard to imagine they will do so after seeing such stark and recent consequences wrought upon the leaders who went before them.
Both leaders will have to try to do something that conservatives haven’t done in quite some time in Canada: win elections by campaigning as conservatives. This isn’t an unreasonable request on the part of members, and it isn’t an impossible task.
If pivoting to the left was a successful formula for electoral wins in Canada, Erin O’Toole would be the prime minister today. If slow-rolling conservative promises were effective while in office, Kenney wouldn’t have fallen behind the NDP in the polls before being fired as the UCP leader.
Voters aren’t as ideologically driven as many political strategists assume they are. They are just as inclined to cast their ballot based on instinct as they are on specific policy stances. They want to feel a sense of trust for the person they vote for and they want a positive vision. Flip-flopping on recent policy statements makes a leader look unprincipled and unreliable to party members and the electorate. Alberta is not a left-leaning province, but when the Conservatives appeared untrustworthy in 2015, voters gave Rachel Notley’s NDP a majority government because she seemed honest and positive.
Pierre Poilievre and Danielle Smith won’t win elections by trying to paint themselves as liberals. They can reprioritize their stances, but they can’t reverse them. Considering the devaluation of bitcoin, it’s not surprising that Poilievre isn’t keeping cryptocurrencies on the front of his agenda these days. Likewise, while she isn’t scrapping it, Smith is softening the rhetoric around her proposed Sovereignty Act. They can’t start dropping policy planks altogether, though.
Poilievre has some more time to work with, as a federal election likely won’t be held for at least a year. Smith only has seven months before she must face the voters.
The establishment has pulled out all the stops in opposing Smith. Between now and next spring’s election, everything she says will be painted as extreme and controversial. If she withstands the barrage, she can win as a conservative. If she pivots, she is finished. That could inspire Poilievre to stay true to his values.
Pivoting isn’t an option.
