Cory Morgan: ‘Just Transition’ a Political Move That Comes at the Cost of National Unity

The Quest carbon capture and storage facility owned by Shell in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Jason Franson

Commentary

Recent comments by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will do nothing to defuse tensions with Albertans.

In a recent Reuters interview, Trudeau said, “One of the challenges is there is a political class in Alberta that has decided that anything to do with climate change is going to be bad for them or for Alberta.” He also said: “We’ve seen for a while Alberta hesitating around investing in anything related to climate change. But CCUS is one of those tangible things.”

Alberta has invested billions of dollars into CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage) over the last decade and continues to do so. The province has been a pioneer and world leader in the technology. Trudeau’s statements won’t be received well by companies that invested in the technology and provincial governments that fostered it.

Alberta is also on track to meet renewable energy targets through heavy investment in wind, solar, and geothermal projects.

How could Trudeau not know he was poking a regional hornet’s nest when he accused Alberta of hesitating on these issues and falsely implied Alberta wasn’t investing in things such as carbon capture and storage initiatives?

Trudeau also implied that Alberta should be directing its budgetary surplus toward climate policy initiatives. Telling Albertans what to do with their own money won’t exactly endear them to a federal government they already have little love for.

It only took a few moments of research to find how deeply Alberta has invested in CCUS and renewable energy sources. Surely Trudeau’s advisers were well aware of this when preparing him for the Reuters interview. Were Trudeau’s provocative statements intentional?

If yes, it’s worth pondering why he would light a fuse under Albertans with these comments.

Could it be because regional divisions have traditionally served the Liberal Party of Canada well electorally?

In the 1980 federal election, Liberal campaign organizer Keith Davey infamously said “Screw the west, we’ll take the rest.” Enraged Albertans responded with a flood of bumper stickers saying let the east “freeze in the dark.”

Pierre Trudeau played upon the regional fury and won a majority government with nearly all his seats based in Eastern and Central Canada. Alberta became an electoral desert for the Liberal Party for decades, but it didn’t matter. Davey’s strategy paid off, and it appears Pierre Trudeau’s son may be preparing to emulate it.

Justin Trudeau’s government has been stuck in a holding pattern since losing its majority status in 2019. The 2021 general election led to a stalemate, and current polling isn’t indicating substantive change in electoral support for any party. The average minority government in Canada only lasts about 18 months. The clock is ticking, and if Trudeau can’t pull a majority off in the next election, his tenure as Liberal leader will surely be finished. He needs a cause to embrace, and sparking a regional battle with Alberta could provide him with it.

The Trudeau government has talked about bringing in a “just transition” plan to phase Western workers out of the oil and gas sector for years. It appears they have decided to bring in the legislation this year, and it will surely spark battles with Western governments.

While alternative energy projects are indeed growing around the world, demand for oil and gas products remains strong and is expected to grow for decades. The oil and gas sector directly provides nearly 100,000 well-paying jobs in Western Canada and indirectly supports millions. The industry is currently suffering from a labour shortage and is desperately seeking new workers, yet the federal government is talking about transitioning existing workers out of the sector.

Where are workers supposed to transition to? The tech sector in North America shed nearly 100,000 jobs in 2022, and alternative energy projects aren’t developed to a point anywhere close to large enough to absorb economic refugees from the oil and gas sector. How can workers and governments not feel threatened by Trudeau’s plans?

The proposed legislation will rattle Alberta’s economy, and when Premier Danielle Smith pushes back with things such as the Sovereignty Act, she and the rest of Albertans will surely be cast as villains within the Confederation.

The script for 2023 is set.

The feds will continue with his rhetoric painting Albertans as selfish Canadians sitting on large provincial surpluses while refusing to take part in his grand green vision, and it likely will solidify the Liberals’ support in Ontario and Quebec. Ironically, it will likely lead Danielle Smith to a solid victory in the 2023 Alberta election this spring as well.

The formula for winning elections through regional division is tried and true. While it may help Trudeau win a majority government, it could shatter Canada’s already fragile sense of national unity. That’s a high price to pay for electoral ambitions.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.