Nobody saw Danielle Smith coming. She had spent over seven years in the political wilderness after having led a disastrous mass floor-crossing from the Alberta Wildrose Party to the Progressive Conservative Party in 2014. The move contributed to the shattering of Alberta’s conservative movement and the unexpected Alberta NDP majority win in 2015. Smith lost her own party nomination and moved on to become a talk radio host. When Smith announced her intention to run for the United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership last spring, few people thought she had a realistic chance of winning the race.
By the time other contenders for the United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership realized just how strong Smith’s campaign was, it was too late. Smith controlled the narrative of the entire campaign with her proposed Sovereignty Act while other candidates were put into a reactive role. The campaign took a negative turn as Smith’s competitors united in attacking her. Former premier Jason Kenney broke with political convention and repeatedly spoke out against Smith’s campaign. It took six ballots for Smith to win a narrow victory over former UCP finance minister Travis Toews. While Smith had taken the leadership of the party, her ability to maintain unity within such a fractious party was in question.
Would Alberta conservatives split again as they had in the past? Opponents of the UCP certainly hoped they would.
Premier Smith’s cabinet selection and the upbeat AGM the party held near Edmonton on the weekend dashed the hopes of those wanting to see the party rend itself and fall into the infighting that has characterized Canadian conservative parties of late.
Premier Smith’s cabinet selections kept most of Jason Kenney’s top ministers in senior positions. Smith returned her top leadership rival, Travis Toews, to his position as Alberta’s finance minister. Five out of six of the contenders for UCP leadership were given cabinet roles as Smith made it clear she wasn’t holding grudges over the tone of the leadership race. Smith carefully constructed her cabinet to maintain party unity and avoid having prominent conservatives heading out the door in the early days of her government.
Premier Smith’s next hurdle was the party AGM. General meetings can be minefields for political parties. Internal elections for party board positions can be divisive among the membership and outbursts from attendees can derail the gathering. The AGM went smoothly, and Smith maintained her message of party unity as she was introduced for her keynote speech by her former leadership rivals. Smith learned some hard lessons in 2015 and the importance of maintaining peace within the party is clearly top of mind for her.
Smith’s speech at the AGM made it clear she was going to stick to her platform of pursuing provincial autonomy with her Sovereignty Act being the first legislative order of business in saying “Alberta will no longer ask permission from Ottawa to be prosperous and free.” She received a standing ovation when she reiterated that the province will refuse to enforce any federal policies or laws considered to be unjust to the province.
Smith repeatedly referenced the “Trudeau/Singh” alliance in Ottawa. Rather than campaigning directly against the popular former premier Rachel Notley, Smith will be keeping the focus on battling Ottawa. It will likely be an effective tactic as she will win support from Albertans regardless of whether initiatives to pursue provincial autonomy succeed or not. She will either appear as a strong premier who stared down Ottawa and won, or will have been bullied down by a federal government that won’t respect provincial rights. Both scenarios will strengthen her campaign against federal authority in provincial matters.
If Danielle Smith wins a majority government next spring, Canada will have the most militant premier pursuing provincial autonomy ever seen outside of Quebec. Smith will have been given a mandate from Albertan voters to stand up to Ottawa and she will be taking it seriously. Other prairie premiers will surely be watching Alberta’s initiatives closely as Saskatchewan and Manitoba have questioned federal initiatives such as the recent firearm bans.
While Smith made unity within her party a priority, she is determined to shake up regional unity within the country. It’s time that national pundits and decision-makers start taking Danielle Smith seriously. She continues to confound her doubters and can’t be underestimated. Her premiership could very well set the stage to re-examine the terms of confederation for every province in Canada.
