Banks in many places in China have reportedly introduced“heart-to-heart loans” that encourage unmarried couples to apply for home loans before they are married; and “centenary loans” that allow children to inherit their parents’ loan and extend the repayment period to 100 years. Experts believe that such relaxation of loan repayment time limits and borrower conditions could be intended to relieve the pressure of high housing prices that has undermined the country’s real estate market.
The move is somewhat like the Chinese banks’ attempts to ease the dual pressures of sluggish property sales and early repayment by borrowers, and has been seen elsewhere in other similar practices.
The so-called centenary loan means, for example, a bank raises the maximum loan age for a homebuyer from 65 to 70, and then the homebuyer’s children take out a loan for the property for another 30 years, which adds up to a loan term of 100 years.
Lifetime Mortgage Repayment
“Unlike the Western credit bankruptcy protection system, home mortgages in China are obligated to be repaid for life,” China expert Shi Shan told Epoch Times on Feb. 25.“It is actually a sort of ‘relay loan’ in the broad sense that one person’s income is not sufficient, and another person provides income to support the loan repay,” said Zheng Dayuan, a senior mortgage expert in Guangzhou.
Shi believes the relay loans are a “bone-squeezing” financial product that drains borrowers’ income, “it seems to reduce the burden of the borrower in [the] short term, but it puts them into over-indebtedness beyond actual solvency [in the long run].”
Moreover, it binds children’s credit demands in advance, extending the next generation’s future debt, he added.
The key reason for Chinese banks to propose various relay loans, in Shi’s view, is because of overpriced houses and the inability of residents to afford a home.
State-Manipulated Housing Prices
On Feb. 17, property developer Xincheng Group reportedly sold more than 70 suites of houses in Jinyue Garden, located in Shenzhen’s Longgang district, on the first promotion day. The slogan “With a down payment of only 300,000 yuan (about $43,000), the developer allows 600,000 yuan (about $86,000) free non-repayment” set off a home buying boom.Such a preferential promotion tactic comes when Xincheng Group’s sales met with headwinds due to “multiple impacts of the market, the industry, and the epidemic [COVID]” for the past year. In Jinyue Garden’s Phase I, only half of the 522 units were sold in one year, while only 17 of the 490 Phase II units were sold in six months, as stated by the company on Feb. 19.
However, one day later, the Shenzhen municipal housing bureau called an emergency halt to Xincheng Group’s promotion activity and sealed some of the properties, claiming that the sales activity was suspected of “disrupting the market.”
According to the publicity of Xincheng Group, if the price of a property worth 3 million yuan ($430,000) is cut by 600,000 yuan ($86,000), it is equivalent to a 20 percent discount.
Land Value and Real Estate-Related Tax
An article published on Feb.23 on NetEase challenged the reasons for the Communist government’s reluctance to lower housing prices even though excessively high housing price scare people away from buying homes.If the housing price falls, then the land price will fall with it, and subsequently, the land mortgage companies will be insolvent and may default at any time. Once those companies default, banks’ bad debts will swell dramatically, and financial products will be seriously depreciated in value, “all these problems will lead local governments into a serious financial crisis,” the article said.
Thus, a flurry of policies by the authorities against the real estate sector, both the crackdown in 2021 and the reversed strengthening of the property market, are merely for the concerns of securing the delivery of properties, stabilizing soaring house prices, and preserving land values, according to the article author’s opinion.
To boost the property industry, the authorities have reopened the possibility of real estate companies going to the public to raise capital, which was stopped during a crackdown on the sector in 2021, as well as other transfusion measures.
Shi held the view that if housing prices fall, the real estate tax that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wanted to implement will not be as effective, and other taxes based on property valuation, such as estate duty, will also bear the impact, “so the CCP will hold on to the rip-off housing price while digesting the housing inventory ploddingly,” he said.
Currency Stagnates at Banks, Consumption Weakens
The authorities are striving to lengthen the time of de-stocking in the hope that the properties in reserve will be sold at consistently high prices, even if it takes more time, said U.S.-based China expert Ji Da, citing that the real estate industry has been tied to the Chinese economy, a somewhat lifeblood for the CCP.Ji told The Epoch Times on Feb.25. that the high-priced de-stocking model is predicated on sustained economic growth that can constantly generate more new middle class people to support the real estate inventory.
However, China’s real estate has been going downhill over the years.
Residential loans amounted to 257.2 billion yuan (about $37.44 billion) in January, with short-term loans being 34.1 billion yuan (about $4.96 billion), and medium- and long-term loans being 232.1 billion yuan (about $32.47 billion), down by 66.5 billion yuan (about $9.68 billion) and 519.3 billion yuan (about $75.15 billion) respectively from the same period last year.
A sharp drop in housing sales and a sharp decline in the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans to residents partly reflect that the decline in real estate continued, and the relative weakness of both consumption and house purchase willingness.
The Chinese real estate market is seemingly taking a negative attitude toward a house price upswing, with more residents opting to bank their money and forego buying houses beyond their spending power due to their limited economic level.
As to what the CCP has done on many matters, “it does not follow the rules of the market, but adopts an arrogance, a mindset of ‘man can defeat nature’ to artificially manipulate the market, which will definitely lead to the collapse of the real estate market,” Ji said.