The history of armed conflict reveals at least one truism: wars are more easily started than concluded.
Consider the bloodiest conflict of the 20th century, the Great War.
The conflict was at a stalemate for years until the Australian Gen. John Monash engineered a breakthrough at Villers-Bretenneux and Le Hamel. For years, the frontlines had barely moved a few hundred meters.
This truism is worth bearing in mind when considering the conflict in Ukraine.
If put simply, the purpose of war is to defeat an adversary or command sufficient advantage to sue for peace, the prospects for peace in Ukraine are limited.
Having commenced an invasion that he thought would be successful within days, President Vladimir Putin is bogged in a war that he seems unlikely to win, provided other nations continue to assist his adversary. Putin could end the war he initiated by withdrawing from Ukraine, but having invested so much in the conflict; this action seems unlikely.
Facing an existential threat, Ukraine cannot readily agree to a peace settlement unless Russia completely withdraws from occupied territory. Just as occurred in the past, allowing the Russians to remain in Crimea would embolden them to prosecute the war again in the future.
The document is replete with the usual CCP foreign policy statements about “abandon cold war mentality” and “stopping unilateral sanctions.”
But the shallowness of the document is revealed in the first point about “respecting the sovereignty of all countries.”
It states: “Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld. All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. All parties should jointly uphold the basic norms governing international relations and defend international fairness and justice. Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected.”
The logical consequence of this assertion is a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign nation that has been an independent member of the United Nations, as is Russia, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It has internationally accepted borders.
Words and Actions Don’t Match
When asked at a press conference why China didn’t call on Russia to withdraw its troops in the position document and why it did not identify an aggressor in the conflict, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin didn’t directly answer the questions.
Instead, the CCP continues pursuing unlimited partnership with the Putin regime. It has benefitted economically from the conflict with growing bilateral trade between the two nations.
Yet the plan also asserts that “the security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs.”
This underlies China’s fear. Apart from Iran and China, no nation of any consequence supports Russia, yet many countries are assisting Ukraine.
China wants to narrow the conflict to one between Russia and Ukraine, thus weighing the odds in favour of Putin. China and Russia share a common enemy, namely the United States.
China is also playing a long game. If Russia becomes heavily indebted to the CCP, the prospect of China claiming its territory on the Pacific Ocean becomes a future possibility.
The true intent of the Chinese regime’s statement is revealed in point 10, which insists that only sanctions authorized by the United Nations are appropriate. Yet Russia exercises a veto at the U.N., meaning such sanctions will never be approved!
It is impossible to conclude that China’s document is a serious peace plan.
The document is also written with Taiwan in mind. The Chinese regime would use a similarly worded document if it invaded the self-governing country.
It demonstrates that the CCP is concerned about sanctions being used against antagonists and the growing international response to its naked aggression in the Indo-Pacific.
Chinese and Russian officials continue to meet, and Vladimir Putin has announced that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Moscow.
