William Burns, director of the CIA, claimed that Beijing is doubtful whether its potential invasion of Taiwan would be successful, with the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict strengthening such concerns.
“I think our judgment at least is that President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion,“ he said. ”I think, as they’ve looked at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, that’s probably reinforced some of those doubts as well.”
The CIA director noted that the risk of China using force against Taiwan will keep rising during this decade, extending into the next decade as well.
“That’s something obviously, that we watch very, very carefully.”
China has not accepted Taiwan as an independent democracy and has repeatedly indicated its intention to annex the island, even by using force, if required.
China Invading Taiwan
The possibility of China invading Taiwan was raised by the Biden administration in October when Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during an event that Beijing is looking to move against Taiwan on a “much faster timeline.”In 1979, the United States ended its formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, accepting Beijing’s “One China” policy. However, Washington has maintained strong ties with Taipei. The United States’ policies have allowed Taiwan to flourish, Blinken said. But in recent years, there has been a change in approach from Beijing toward Taiwan.
“If peaceful means didn’t work, then [Beijing] would employ coercive means and possibly, if coercive means don’t work, maybe forceful means—to achieve its objectives. And that is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions,” Blinken said.
On Tuesday, Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen stated that she intends to bolster military exchanges with the United States in the face of continued provocations from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
In May last year, President Joe Biden said that Washington would defend Taiwan in case China attacks the island. However, U.S. recognition of the “one China” policy remains unchanged.
Great Harm of Taiwan Annexation
During his speech at The Heritage Foundation on Feb. 16, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), warned that U.S. actions in Ukraine are “directly affecting” the United States’ ability to project force elsewhere, especially deterring China in the Pacific.“When we pour our military power into Ukraine, that decision comes at a cost. As a result, we cannot meet Ukrainian, Taiwanese, and our own military requirements all at the same time, for the foreseeable future. In other words, we can’t do everything,” he said. “China is now positioned to strike with overwhelming force and seize Taiwan.”
The conquest of Taiwan by China would mean that Americans would confront a “new, terrifying reality.” Hawley predicts potential product shortages, from medicine to consumer electronics. China can exploit the trade system to its advantage, he said.
While the war game saw over 40,000 Chinese soldiers killed or wounded, U.S. casualties were estimated to be up to 10,700, with Taiwan seeing 13,000 soldiers wounded or dead.
