Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party is visiting the United States, while former President Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang opposition party made a cross-strait journey to mainland China for an ancestor worship trip.
Observers say that in the next 10 days, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Chinese Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) will debate fiercely over pro-U.S. and pro-China topics, as the parties ramp up toward Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
Tsai set off to visit Central American allies on March 29, stopping in New York along the way. While passing through New York on March 30, she received the Global Leadership Award from the Hudson Institute. She’s scheduled to transit through Los Angeles on her return trip on April 5, when she'll give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and also is expected to meet with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
In Beijing, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s ruling Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Taiwan Affairs Office, shortly before Tsai’s departure threatened retaliation in response to any meeting with the U.S. lawmaker.
Ma’s Trip to Mainland China
Ma left for mainland China on March 27 to visit the Nanjing Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum. Sun is the founding father of the Republic of China (1911–present). On March 28, Ma left flowers at a bronze statue of Sun, who died in 1925.The island of Taiwan was ceded to Japan by the Qing dynasty of China after its defeat in the first Sino–Japanese war in 1895. Taiwan was under Japanese colonial rule until 1945, when Japan surrendered and returned Taiwan to the Republic of China (ROC).
In 1949, when the communists took over mainland China and established the communist state under the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the KMT government of the ROC retreated to Taiwan—the last territory of the ROC, which still exists today. Taiwan’s official name is the Republic of China.
The CCP in mainland China welcomed Ma’s visit at a downgraded level—a deputy provincial level, international media reported, unlike the deputy state head level with which they greeted former Nationalist Party Chairman Lian Zhan during his 2005 visit; that reflects the CCP’s doubling down on its claim that Taiwan is a province to be ruled by the regime in Beijing.
U.S.-based China affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan stated on his talk show for Epoch Times’ sister media outlet NTD that the Republic of China has existed for 112 years, since 1911, and its legal status has never changed.
“The biggest reason for China’s division, so far, is that the CCP created civil strife and established a separate regime. In essence, there is no difference between the current situation of ‘separate rule by the sea’ between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the ‘separate rule by the river’ in history that divided the north and the south of China as different states.”
During Ma’s visit, he made mention of Taiwan by its official name, the Republic of China, on April 1 during a speech at the burial site of his ancestors in Hunan province’s Xiangtan city.
However, when meeting with the communist party’s secretary of Jiangsu province, Xin Changxing, Ma expressed that he'll “adhere to the 1992 consensus.” In 1992, the then-ruling KMT of Taiwan signed an agreement with the CCP in which both parties agreed that there’s only one China. However, the agreement was ambiguous, as it didn’t define “China.” The CCP insists that the “one China” is ruled by the PRC. Some people in Taiwan reject that 1992 consensus.
“I hope that both sides of the Taiwan Strait will pursue peace and avoid war,” Ma also said in an interview with mainland Chinese media.
“The CCP has two strategies. On the one hand, they welcome Ma’s visit,“ Chen Wen-Chia, a senior consultant of the Taiwan National Policy Research Institute and director of the National and Regional Development Research Center of Kainan University, told The Epoch Times on March 29. ”On the other hand, they deliberately downgrade the reception for him to the level of former regional leader to cause dissatisfaction among Taiwanese people.
“For the Taiwanese people, they are generally optimistic about Ma’s visit to China. But if he fails to properly represent Taiwan’s sovereignty and dignity, his trip may cause a negative effect (on the KMT’s election campaign).”
“Now that the competition between the United States and China is so fierce and President Ma is visiting China now, he wants to take a more active and conciliatory role in the changing international situation,” Wu Chonghan, an associate professor at the Department of Foreign Affairs of National Chengchi University in Taiwan, said on March 28.
Eyes on 2024
Taiwan will hold its presidential election on Jan. 13, 2024. The current chairman of the ruling DPP and the nation’s current vice president, Lai Ching-te, has registered and will represent the DPP to run for president; Tsai is term-limited from running for a third term. The KMT hasn’t announced its presidential candidate yet.
“This time, it feels like a competition, as Tsai is visiting the United States while Ma is visiting mainland China,” Wu said. “They are also planning their parties’ stance on cross-strait relations or relations with the United States.”
Chen believes that under current tensions across the Taiwan Strait, Ma intends to use his “peace trip” to help the KMT gain more votes and boost his party’s presidential campaign.
“Ma Ying-jeou’s pro-China expression may have a negative impact on the election of the KMT because after 2020, the Taiwanese public’s [negative] opinion toward China has not changed much,“ Chen Fang-yu, assistant professor of politics at Soochow University in Taiwan, told The Epoch Times on March 28. ”Although the DPP lost in the 2022 local elections, the public’s views on the China issue has not changed.”
According to a survey released by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council on March 23, 83.7 percent of the Taiwanese surveyed agree with the resumption of orderly exchanges between the two sides of the strait after the COVID-19 pandemic. With regard to cross-strait relations, 88.9 percent of the people support “maintaining the status quo in a broad sense” but for the CCP’s proposal of “one country, two systems,” 83.6 percent of respondents disapprove.
Additionally, 84.3 percent of respondents reject the CCP’s ongoing push for other countries to sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan and hinder Taiwan’s participation in international affairs.
Chen told The Epoch Times on March 29 that cross-strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China are unlikely to improve anytime soon.
“Under the DPP administration, Taiwan is joining the alliance with the United States and Japan to contain the CCP. Meanwhile, the CCP confronts the United States, while cooperating with Russia. So, it will not show goodwill toward Taiwan officially,” he said. “The only thing that is going between the two sides of the strait is nongovernmental exchanges and contacts.”
U.S.-based current affairs commentator Li Linyi told The Epoch Times that the moves of the KMT and DPP are essentially testing Taiwan’s public opinion as both parties fight for power in the 2024 Taiwan general election.
“At present, the CCP is mainly using indirect means to join forces with pro-communist forces on the island to try to influence public opinion in Taiwan,” Li said. “The United States will take measures to counter the CCP, based on the CCP’s actions toward Taiwan.
“The four-way interaction between the KMT, the DPP, the CCP, and the United States is likely to have a decisive impact on the final outcome of the general election in Taiwan next year.”
