Taiwan President Says China Faces Too Many Challenges to Consider Invasion

An interview between Andrew Ross Sorkin and President of Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen is displayed on a screen during The New York Times Dealbook Summit 2023 at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York City, on Nov. 29, 2023. Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for The New York Times

China’s communist regime is unlikely to consider an invasion of Taiwan as its leadership is “overwhelmed” by the challenges at home, according to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.

Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China’s ruling Communist Party has claimed as its territory, is facing “mounting military intimidation, gray-zone campaigns, cyberattacks, and information manipulation,” Ms. Tsai said in an interview with the New York Times that was broadcast at the DealBook Summit on Nov. 29.

Despite China’s provocations, she suggested that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to move against Taiwan soon.

“Well, I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges,” Ms. Tsai said. “And my thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.”

She cited China’s economic and financial troubles, as well as political challenges. “But also, the international community has made it loud and clear that war is not an option, and peace and stability serves everybody’s interests,” Ms. Tsai added.

The regime’s top leader has repeatedly vowed to bring Taiwan under the Party’s control. At the twice-a-decade Party Congress last October, Mr. Xi declared that the regime would never renounce the use of force to “reunify” with Taiwan.

U.S. intelligence showed China’s Communist regime had instructed its military to “be ready by 2027“ to attack Taiwan, though that doesn’t mean that Beijing would order it, Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said in February.

However, in the first year entering his unprecedented third term, Xi removed several senior officials from their posts, including his handpicked foreign minister and top commanders overseeing China’s nuclear arsenal, fueling speculation about potential turmoil within the upper echelons of the regime’s leadership.

The sudden leadership reshuffles came at the same time as the country battled deflation. Despite a slew of government support, the latest official data showed a bad outlook for growth. Activities in China’s manufacturing sector continued to shrink in November as demand weakened both at home and abroad, while service activities contracted for the first time in 12 months, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

President Joe Biden has said that China’s economic slowdown may hinder its timeline to take Taiwan militarily, noting that the regime “probably doesn’t have the same capacity that it had before.” But lawmakers, namely Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), suggested the economic woes may accelerate the risk of invasion, as Beijing wants to distract his people from their internal troubles.

At the regular briefing in Beijing, China’s defense ministry reiterated the regime’s stance on Taiwan when asked about Ms. Tsai’s comment.

“China will eventually and surely be reunified,” Wu Qian, the spokesperson of the ministry, told reporters.

US Policy Toward Taiwan

At the meeting with President Biden in San Francisco earlier this month, Mr. Xi described Taiwan as “the biggest, most potentially dangerous issue” in the relations between the world’s two largest economies, according to a senior U.S. official.

President Biden has said on several occasions that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. The White House staff, however, always explained quickly that the president’s comment was not signaling a change in U.S. policy, known as “strategic ambiguity,” toward the island. U.S. administrations have been deliberately vague on whether it would defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Asked how she thinks of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, Ms. Tsai didn’t offer a direct response. But she stressed that “the people of Taiwan remain deeply grateful, as always, for the long-standing and steadfast support from our American friends.”

Taiwan is committed to strengthening its self-defense capabilities. “We are clear-headed about the fact that one is responsible for protecting one’s own homeland,” she said.

Ms. Tsai, who is in her second and final term in office, said her top priority was to defend the island nation’s democratic and free way of life.

Election Interference ‘No Secret’

Taiwan is in the middle of campaigning for presidential and parliamentary elections to be held on Jan. 13. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te, currently vice president, is the frontrunner to be Taiwan’s next president according to opinion polls.

Ms. Tsai said it was “no secret” that China was trying to interfere in Taiwan’s elections.

“But I think they’re probably not particularly successful in their effort of trying to influence the election here. Primarily, because this is a democracy and people know that they have made their best decisions as to who is going to be the next leader of Taiwan,” she said.

“So you know, China, of course, is interested in interfering in Taiwan’s election, and through different means that it is trying to sway our election in their favor.”

Beijing kept up its campaign of military harassment targeting Taipei ahead of the election, continuing to send warplanes and warships near the island on a regular basis. Taiwan’s defense ministry said that starting Thursday morning it had detected J-10 and J-16 fighters as well as ship-borne helicopters operating off central Taiwan and to the island’s southwest. Eleven of those aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, or areas close by, working with Chinese warships to carry out “joint combat readiness patrols,” the ministry added.

A woman uses her mobile phone as she walks in front of a large screen showing a news broadcast about China's military exercises encircling Taiwan, in Beijing, on Aug. 4, 2022. Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images

Aside from military pressure, Google has found a “massive increase” in cyberattacks originating from China targeting Taiwan in the past six months, according to Kate Morgan, the company’s senior engineering manager.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Wednesday stepped up its attacks on Mr. Lai and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, formerly Taiwan’s envoy to the United States.

“Taiwan independence means war. The DPP pushing this dangerous independence double act will only poison the interests and well-being of compatriots on the island,” spokesperson Chen Binhua told a news conference.

Speaking to reporters in Taipei on Thursday, Taiwan’s top China policy maker Chiu Tai-san dismissed Beijing’s criticisms.

“Honestly speaking, those comments show they don’t even know what democratic politics and elections are,” said Mr. Chiu, who heads Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council.

Reuters contributed to this report.