Sinking of China’s Nuclear Submarine Shows Challenge in Its Catch-Up Efforts

Taken during a media tour organized by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, this photo shows two submarines at the PLA Naval Museum in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, on April 23, 2024. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

Commentary

China’s naval expansion has hit a major setback. Between May and June, a nuclear-powered attack submarine sank during construction, and Beijing has been trying to keep it under wraps.

While military equipment development setbacks are not unique to any nation, the incident offers an embarrassing counter-example to the Chinese communist propaganda that its military is continuously making glorious achievements. Beijing’s path to maritime dominance may be more challenging than it seems.

The submarine, first in the Zhou class, features an X-shaped stern for better maneuverability. It reportedly went down at the Wuchang Shipyard, run by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, in a densely populated urban area on the outskirts of Wuhan along the Yangtze River. It was unclear whether the sunk submarine carried nuclear fuel, but it’s likely. Any potential nuclear fuel leak could cause disaster for nearby residents.

Although China boasts the largest navy in the world in terms of fleet size, nuclear-powered submarines are an area in which the communist regime lags behind the United States considerably. In addition, U.S. allies have also been making strides in their development.

Take Taiwan, for instance. Exactly a year ago, on Sept. 28, 2023, Taiwan launched its first domestically built submarine—the Hai Kun (Narwhal).

Armed with U.S.-made MK48 Mod.6 long-range torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, it is tailored to meet Taiwan’s need for asymmetric warfare. Although not nuclear-powered, the submarine is capable of intercepting enemy ships—including those far from Taiwan’s shores—blocking key sea lanes and even engaging larger Chinese vessels, if necessary.

The underwater craft, scheduled to enter service in 2025, is part of a planned fleet of seven, developed with considerable international support, including the help of U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin regarding the weapon system. Australia, South Korea, India, Spain, and Canada also provided parts and manpower support.

Taiwan's first locally built submarine, Narwhal, is seen during an unveiling ceremony at the CSBC Corporation shipbuilding company in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, on Sept. 28, 2023. Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

Meanwhile, the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the United States is also making significant progress. On Sept. 26, during a meeting of defense ministers, Australia and the UK agreed to advance their next-generation nuclear-powered submarine program. As part of AUKUS, the United States will sell five Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia in the early 2030s. By the mid-2030s, Australia and the UK will jointly build and operate the new SSN-AUKUS nuclear submarines.

These developments will make Australia the seventh country in the world to possess nuclear-powered submarines, joining the ranks of the United States, Russia, China, the UK, France, and India. However, these submarines will carry only conventional weapons, reflecting AUKUS’s commitment to nonnuclear proliferation.

But AUKUS isn’t just about submarines. The partnership includes a broader focus on advanced technologies and defense capabilities. The member nations are accelerating the development of hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, electronic warfare, quantum technology, and underwater systems. The SSN-AUKUS is going to be an all-new underwater beast.

Australia is also enhancing its military capabilities beyond submarines. It is acquiring a variety of long-range, precision-guided weapons, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, the AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER), and hypersonic missile technology. These additions will significantly boost Australia’s offensive power, potentially shifting the regional military balance.

Despite setbacks and challenges, China is not slowing down its submarine construction efforts. However, whether China can achieve regional dominance is not solely up to the communist party.

The recent submarine incident offers just a glimpse into what might be a series of undisclosed blunders within the CCP’s military development. The full extent of these “black box” incidents may never be known, but each one adds to the uncertainties surrounding China’s ambitions.

While the sinking of China’s nuclear submarine may not derail its overall military plans, it serves as a stark reminder: China’s path to regional hegemony is fraught with both internal and external obstacles.

Co-author, Stephen Xia, formerly a professor at the Chinese Military Flight Academy and a flying expert, transitioned to a professional military analyst after retiring from military service. He has since been closely following the global development of military equipment.