This year marks the 33rd anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre; it is the first June 4th without the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HK Alliance), after its disbandment.
A poll by Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) showed that the rate of Hongkongers supporting June 4th vindication called “reversion of the official stand on the incident,” in the survey questions was at the lowest in nearly 20 years, while the rate of those who agree that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) handled June 4th appropriately, is set at a new record high.
Scholars and former HK Alliance volunteers believe that the results and the trends of migration and how citizens feel in the present social atmosphere are related—also, they are concerned with the sequence of the questions.
HKPORI, published a review on the June 4th Incident which is part of the ‘One Country Two Systems 25-year, Mid-term Review.
In the review, 40 percent of people still support HK Alliance’s policy principles, which is at the lowest rate since 2002 and the second-lowest in similar reviews was in 1997.
Although the vindication figure remains higher than the 30 percent of opposition, the gap between the supporters and the non-supporter groups is at the smallest in history.
Review Conducted by Random Sampling
HKPORI phone-interviewed 1,003 Hongkongers during the period of May 12-20, 2022.The result shows, that only 40 percent support June 4th vindication, hitting a record low since 1997 in a similar question.
After revealing the data, the net percentage of June 4th vindication supporters was 47.1 in 2013 which was documented as the highest in history at the time.
The supporters of the June 4th Incident (vindication) decreased for the second year in a row, from 59.4 percent in 2020, plummeting to 39.6 percent this year (2022). Non-supporters spiked from 22.9 percent in 2020 to 29.8 percent this year.
Many Interviewees Said They Don’t Know or Aren’t Sure.
Support For Vindication Subsides
Although the number of June 4th vindication supporters dived drastically for the second consecutive year, former assistant professor in the Department of Applied Social Science at the Polytechnic University of Hong Kong, Professor Chung Kin-wah, pointed out that almost 40 percent of citizens are supportive of the June 4 movement, which is not a small ratio. Since it is just a little higher than the non-supporters by 10 percent, we can only judge the effectiveness of CCP’s propaganda by observing the continuation of the trend next year.Professor Chung, thinks that it is natural that the numbers in the interviews were influenced by HK Alliance disbandment, the lack of people campaigning for June 4th vindication, as well as the departure of many Hongkongers.
Ben Lam Siu-pan, a former district councilor who used to be a volunteer of HK Alliance, thought that there is no direct link between the organization’s disbandment and the decline in the number of people who support the movement.
In his view, it was partly that many Hongkongers’ are disillusioned with the CCP; they no longer need the CCP to vindicate June 4th thoroughly, as vindicating would mean the CCP had perfected itself and realized its own mistakes. However, now that a lot of Hongkongers’ fantasies are shattered, they no longer need the CCP to vindicate anything at all.
Meanwhile, Lam observed similar polls such as Hong Kong identity, and Chinese identity, as well as this June 4th questionnaire being conducted in recent years, all of them, display a trend in the development of “weakening public opinion among pro-democracy supporters.” This was influenced by the rise in Chinese identity, and the decline in Hongkongers’ identity in the territory, and hence the decline in the rate of those supporting vindication.
Lam analyzed that the trend of people moving away, stems from the decline in “yellow people” (pro-democracy) staying in Hong Kong.
Under the circumstances of Red Terror, many pro-democracy citizens did not dare to answer the questions, resulting in the low response rate.
The net value of vindicating June 4th supporters rated at the record-breaking low (40 percent), while support on how CCP’s handling of June 4th pushed up to 30 percent.
In addition, 22.8 percent is the proportion of people who feel that the Chinese (CCP) government has done right by the June 4th incident. Its rate is at the highest since similar research began in 1993.
The number of people who feel that the CCP has done wrong dipped to an historical low to 45.3 percent.
In addition, 31.8 percent said they don’t know or it is difficult to say; the number is the second-highest in history, next to the number in 2002.
As for those who believe that Beijing students did the right thing on June 4th, the figure dropped to 35.5 percent, while 20.9 percent thought Beijing students had done wrong, and 43.6 percent of interviewees are unsure or found it difficult to determine. The difference is the highest since year 2000, with far more people, responding for the very first time since 2002.
Professor Chung said, “Including the decline in the ratio of June 4th supporters, the above results can be disappointing to some, as they see public polls as the only platform to reflect public opinion. However, the number of people who are still supportive of June 4th is still higher than the non-supporters by 10 percent, simultaneously, more people still believe it was the government’s wrongdoing rather than the students. Perhaps it wouldn’t be surprising if people in the future might answer the questions more proactively. After all, it is common to see in public polls that some people would adapt their answers according to the trends.”
When asked whether he believed that people’s perceptions remain unchanged, Professor Chung expressed, “We can tell only if one day there is a chance to have commemorated assemblies again. He thinks HKPORl’s poll reflects how little change there is in Hongkongers’ feelings towards the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.
Support For Mainland Democratic Development Falls
The survey also covered the viewpoints of Hongkongers’ responsibilities for the political and economic development in mainland China.Although it shows more people agreed that Hong Kong have a responsibility to develop democracy in China, the ones who don’t agree take up 35.6 percent, which is the second-highest in history, second only to 2020.
This year, 45.1 percent feel Hong Kong still has a responsibility for the mainland’s democratic development. The gap between the two narrowed to its smallest since such surveys took place in 1993. Citizens who expressed their uncertainty or difficulty in deciding rose to 19.4 percent, the highest rate ever recorded.
Ben Lam said the numbers above are connected to the political situations in Hong Kong. Hong Kong used to have freedom, “with half of a democratic system, Hong Kong still could back up mainland China’s social movements. However, now that there is no freedom and no democracy in Hong Kong, the city can barely help itself. Hong Kong does not have much to spare, does it?” He also believed that the number of people who feel zero responsibility towards China’s social movements will overtake the number of the opposite within a few years.
Professor Chung analyzed that those who feel the responsibility to promote China’s democracy fall into two groups; those that have an affinity to the Chinese people and always want to try to help them, and the practical business people that look at the situation from their business viewpoint.
Chung continued, “I think most of the first group is disappointed to the point of being hopeless. For the other group, there is no doubt at all that they want to make money fast and get out of here.”
When asked what will happen to the gap between the responsible and non-responsible? Chung said the younger generation under the circumstances in Hong Kong doesn’t think they have any obligation to china at all.
Support for Mainland Economic Development Improves
The ratio between feeling obliged to promote China’s economic development, rather than no commitment, has widened for the second consecutive year, The number of people who feel responsible has leaped from 45 percent in 2020 to 56 percent, while the opposite plunged to 33 percent; 11.4 percent responded “unsure, or indecisive,” which was recorded as the highest since 2004.In the survey, people were asked which they feel China needs more, economic development or democracy development.
The percentage of those who were indecisive or unsure marked the highest since 2002 at 9.2.
The ratios of those who believe China should emphasize more on economic development than democratic development is 34.9 percent to 30.4 percent respectively. This is the first time such a phenomenon has existed.
This question has been surveyed since 1993. Most of the time the result had shown that the majority thought China should concentrate more on democratic development than economic development by quite a large margin. In the few years approaching 2020 the margin in favour of democratic development was between 13 and 20 percent. This narrowed in 2021 to just 6 percentage points.
China’s Human Rights Hits Record High
In a question about human rights in China, half of the interviewees thought that the human rights situation in China has improved compared with 1989. The number climbed for the second time in succession.However, 22.9 percent thought that it was worse than in 1989, this percentage dived deeply for the second consecutive year from 42.6 percent in 2020.
The number of people with uncertainty and indecisiveness rose to the highest point since 1993 at 11.1 percent.
When comparing this survey of the human rights situation in China to the one conducted back in 1989, only the 2020 result showed that far fewer people (38 percent) believed the human rights situation has improved.
As for the results in the remaining years, more people thought the situation was getting better than those who voted worse, about the same, or unsure.
Looking ahead to the human rights situation in the next 3 years, 36.7 percent of people believe it will improve in the future, while 25.6 percent think the opposite—this latter figure shows a sharp drop for the second consecutive year, from 43.7 percent in 2020 and 33 percent in 2021. Those who aren’t sure increased the most on record, standing at 18.3 percent.
Looking at several questions as a whole, the number of citizens who responded to “not sure” or “don’t know” reached a record high in the past 20 years, since this kind of survey existed in 1993.
Professor Chung explained that the numbers reflect the self-adjustment or coping strategies of citizens.
“Trying hard to remain quiet” is their way of showing concerns that survey data might be leaked, or possibly a display of giving up under the current circumstances, adding an attitude of “do what you want. I don’t want anything to do with you.”
Chung recognizes that since the public perception of right and wrong about the June 4 vindication has been rooted deeply over the years, the possibility of a strategic response is reasonably higher.
The number of people in uncertainty increased significantly.
The survey of HKPORI and its predecessor, the Hong Kong University Public Opinion Programme, initially comprised the questions of “the scores of HK Alliance before June 4th” and “do you think HK Alliance should be disbanded” since 1993.
These two questions, nonetheless, vanished following multiple arrests of members of standing committees of the HK Alliance, after the organization was forcibly dissolved under the Hong Kong National Security Law last year.
