NATO Looking to Asia to Build a Defensive Alliance to Deter Communist China: Experts

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (L) shakes hands with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on Jan. 31, 2023. Takashi Aoyama/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is just a wake-up call for NATO, the growing menace from another militant—the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—towards Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region has prompted NATO’s decision to set up a liaison office in Asia in response to any potential conflict or war in this area, experts suggest.

NATO, or North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance of countries from Europe and North America, plans to open a liaison office in Tokyo in July, said Koji Tomita, Japanese ambassador to the United States, in a May 9 speech to the press.

Immediately afterward, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced on June 1 that “For the second time in history, we will have all the leaders of four Asia-Pacific partners, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, attending our summit in Vilnius [of Lituania].”

The four countries were first invited to the NATO summit in June last year, four months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Anders Corr, the founder of Corr Analytics and publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, said in a June 2 interview with The Epoch Times that NATO is seeking to strengthen its military alliance, “As China and Russia have aligned themselves in what amounts to an offensive axis, along with Iran and North Korea, watch for U.S. alliance systems in Europe and Asia to balance against them in a defensive alliance by integrating their institutional structures.”

“We should eventually see Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines joining NATO or an equivalent less formal democratic alliance system,” he said.

Euro-Asian Alliance

“I think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reopened people’s eyes to Russia’s tendency to be aggressive. … That threat has driven NATO to renewed levels of unity,” said Carl Schuster, former director of operations for the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, to The Epoch Times on June 2. He said that the CCP’s support for Russia and the CCP’s bullying in the Indo-Pacific region has “driven a mutual interest in increasing security cooperation” between NATO and potential partners in Asia.

During the Russia-Ukraine war, the CCP secretly sold military high-tech products to Russia through shell companies in Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates. It shipped electronic components for anti-aircraft missile radar to Russia and provided satellite images to support the Russian mercenary forces fighting in Ukraine.

Not only military assistance, but the CCP also aids Russia economically. Ignoring the joint sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the United Kingdom, and EU countries, China’s overall trade with Russia hit a record high of $190 billion in 2022, a 30 percent jump from the previous year, according to BBC’s report on March 20.

Schuster said that NATO is “taking a renewed and increasing interest in Asian security,” and that placing a liaison office in Tokyo indicates that “Japan is drawing closer to Europe in terms of security cooperation.”

Asian security is also relevant to European peace, suggested Schuster, adding, “After all, Europe has a very extensive trading interest. And any threat to the International Seaways, Freedom of navigation, any bullying that threatens any of the Asian countries, those all affect Europe.”

CCP’s Wolf Worrier Diplomacy

Members of the Chinese People's Liberation Army based at the Hong Kong garrison march following Chinese President Xi Jinping's review in Hong Kong on June 30, 2017. Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images

The establishment of a NATO liaison office in Tokyo shows that the CCP’s wolf warrior diplomacy of the past five years has backfired, according to Schuster, because European opinion of China has changed.

“In some cases, the [European] countries are becoming diplomatically skeptical about China,” he said, citing the CCP’s wolf warrior activities in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and other southern neighbors, as well as its alignment with Russia’s aggression.

The CCP rulers have demonstrated their rogue nature to the world with so-called “wolf warrior diplomacy” over the years. This February, CIA Director Burns noted that U.S. intelligence information indicated that CCP leader Xi Jinping had ordered the People’s Liberation Army to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

“This adds to the global instability already increasing from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both threats are changing national security policies in all of the world’s most powerful democracies,” Corr said.

In November 2021, Lithuania, a small European country, allowed Taiwan to open a diplomatic office on European soil; its first in Europe in 18 years. The Chinese regime has been claiming that it has sovereignty over Taiwan.

In May, EU foreign ministers held an informal meeting in Stockholm to recalibrate their policy toward China, which approved the EU Foreign and Security Policy Representative Josep Borrell’s strategic outline aimed at reducing dependence on the Chinese economy.

U.S. President Joe Biden, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi attend the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity at the Izumi Garden Gallery in Tokyo on May 23, 2022. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Over the past year, the United States has gradually developed a strategic, technological, and military policy framework aimed at countering the influence of the CCP. Last February, the United States unveiled its latest Indo-Pacific Strategy, which intends to strengthen U.S. leadership in all regions from South Asia to the Pacific Islands. In May, Biden launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework during his trip to East Asia, with 13 countries such as South Korea, Japan, India, and Vietnam participating. In the same month, the United States held a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with leaders from Australia, India, and Japan in Tokyo.

Now it’s NATO’s turn to act, said Corr, pointing to NATO’s future office in Tokyo that could provide timely assistance in the event of a war between Japan and the CCP or North Korea, for example, surrounding the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.

Japan Increases its Military Expenditure

Corr said that all democracies in the world are pulling together and more thoroughly “arming themselves to defend against Russia and China,” including Japan.

Japan has a history of war against both countries that stretches back to wars in the late 19th century with China and the early 20th century with Russia, according to Corr.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attends a press conference in Tokyo on December 16, 2022. David Mareuil/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Last December, the Japanese government said it would spend 43 trillion yen (about $322 billion) on national defense over the next five years, including deploying the first missiles that could strike military targets in other countries. In March, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a new plan designed to promote an open and free Indo-Pacific region, pledging billions of dollars in investment.

“Japan’s new military spending is primarily aimed at deterring China. However, Taiwan and Japan’s lack of nuclear weapons against an aggressive nuclear-armed state is insufficient,” Corr said.

“We have seen what happened to a non-nuclear Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if it had not relinquished its nuclear weapons in 1994. We can also expect China to invade Taiwan if the U.S. does not help Japan and Taiwan obtain the weapons that are at least as powerful and modern as those wielded by China,” Corr continued.

Schuster shared similar views that Japan has to worry about threats from the north as the Chinese and North Korean militaries gain strength. After U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last August, the CCP launched several days of military exercises, including firing missiles into the waters of Japan’s islands.

Schuster said, “Japan needs an open Pacific to survive. Economically, they import over 90 percent of their energy requirements. And that means the ocean has to be open and free.”

On the other hand, if the CCP expands the scope of its aggression to the island chain, it will affect Japan’s economy and security, said Schuster, “Same logic applies to Taiwan. Taiwan imports over 90 percent of its energy as well.”

Therefore, Japan, as the world’s third-largest economic power, can play a critical role in defending democracies globally if it increases its defense spending, including nuclear weapons that can effectively combat CCP’s conventional and nuclear threats, Corr said.