Nations Compete to Play the ‘Vietnam Card’ Amid US-China Geopolitics

President Joe Biden attends a welcoming ceremony hosted by Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (2L) at the Presidential Palace of Vietnam in Hanoi on Sept. 10, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

After China recently increased its aggression against the Philippines in the South China Sea, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, where he signed multiple agreements.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is seeking warm ties with Vietnam in the wake of geopolitical challenges.

On Dec. 12, Mr. Xi declared that China-Vietnam relations had been upgraded to a “community of shared future.” The two countries signed 37 agreements, including one that will increase China’s financial support for cross-border railroad construction.

As Southeast Asian countries including Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar have joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Vietnam has remained hesitant, fearing that it could be seen as an endorsement of China’s expansionist and bullying conduct.

Senior editor and writer of The Epoch Times Shi Shan said, “The CCP has warmed up to Vietnam to resolve the conflict in the South China Sea, which is currently a major confrontation between China and the Philippines.”

An Impending Crisis

Just before the Chinese leader’s visit to Vietnam, Chinese coast guard vessels intercepted, attacked, and rammed Philippine supply vessels in disputed waters in the South China Sea on Dec. 9 and 10. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner Jr. was on board the vessel that was rammed.

Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Manuel Romualdez warned that conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea could ignite at any time. He emphasized that the South China Sea “is the flashpoint, not Taiwan.”

A New Ally to Confront China

In recent years, various countries have warmed up to Vietnam in the face of China’s expansionist agenda. In September President Joe Biden visited Vietnam and upgraded the relationship between the two countries to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” The United States and Vietnam have signed a number of deals, including on semiconductors and minerals.

At the end of November, Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong visited Japan and met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The two leaders confirmed that they would expand cooperation in the areas of defense and security in the face of China’s aggression.

Vietnam's President Vo Van Thuong (L) is welcomed by Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during his visit to the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo on November 27, 2023. Richard A. Brooks /POOL/AFP via Getty Images

As with the United States, Vietnam also upgraded relations with Japan to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” This is the highest level of partnership that Vietnam previously only enjoyed with China, Russia, and South Korea.

In addition, South Korea, which has long been economically dependent on China, has shifted its focus to Vietnam in recent years. Since former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who came to power in 2017, pushed for a “New Southern Policy” to strengthen cooperation with the ASEAN countries, Vietnam has become a major trading partner for South Korea.

South Korea-Vietnam trade has reached $87.7 billion in 2022. Vietnam has become South Korea’s third largest trading partner after China and the United States, and South Korean capital has become the top source of investment in Vietnam, reaching $81 billion by 2022, ahead of Singapore’s $70.8 billion.

In June, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited Vietnam with a business delegation and said that “close cooperation between South Korea and Vietnam is more important than ever” in the current international environment.

After Mr. Yoon’s visit to Vietnam, many in the South Korean media have suggested that South Korea should reduce its economic dependence on China by turning to Vietnam.

South Korea’s oldest daily newspaper Chosun Ilbo published an article pointing to Vietnam as a starting point for “de-Chinaization.” Another daily newspaper JoongAng Ilbo also said that “de-Chinaization” seems to be the trend to avoid the soaring labor costs in China and the competition between China and the United States.

Shi Shan said that Vietnam has become the biggest beneficiary in the regional power struggle since all countries are handing out incentives to Vietnam to counter China’s influence.

Vietnam’s Turbulent Relationship With China

Mr. Shi pointed out that during the Cold War, China was able to establish a good relationship with the United States because of Vietnam, and Vietnam has always played an important role in U.S.-China relations and the CCP’s regional strategy.

In 1961, during the Vietnam War, the Communist North Vietnamese marched south in an attempt to overthrow the South Vietnamese government, a U.S. ally, and to contain Communist expansion, President John F. Kennedy sent troops to support the South Vietnamese. From 1965, U.S. forces entered the war on a large scale. The North Vietnamese, with the support of the CCP and the former Soviet Union, adopted guerrilla warfare tactics, making it difficult for the U.S. military to be effective.

During President Richard Nixon’s administration in 1973, the United States signed the Paris Peace Accords with the North Vietnamese and then withdrew the American troops. The agreement was supposed to keep the status quo with a divided North and South Vietnam.

U.S.-China relations have been in a state of perpetual confrontation since the CCP usurped power. During the Cultural Revolution, CCP leader Mao Zedong warmed up to the United States, which led to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger visiting China in 1971 on behalf of President Nixon. China’s improved relations with the United States were due to a fallout with the Soviet Union.

U.S. President Richard Nixon’s special adviser Henry Kissinger (front, 5th L) and Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai (front, 6th L) pose with their delegations for a group photo in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 1971. Kissinger traveled to China to meet with Mr. Zhou to set the stage for Nixon’s historic visit in 1972. -/AFP via Getty Images

“This is such a tacit understanding between the United States and China, and the strategic goal was to work together against the former Soviet Union,” said Mr. Shi. “This entire strategy contributed to the beginning of the ‘honeymoon period’ between the United States and China.”

However, the Communist North Vietnamese soon tore up the peace agreement with the United States and attacked South Vietnam, leading to the entire Vietnam falling to the Communists in 1975. The CCP was displeased with North Vietnam’s actions and began to cut trade and aid to Vietnam, which led to the deterioration of Vietnam’s economy and the relationship between the two countries.

The 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War was a breaking point for the total reversal of the CCP’s previous strategy,“ Mr. Shi said. ”Since now that China is once again an adversary of the United States, the CCP has gone back to Vietnam, so it can be said that Vietnam plays an important role in the CCP’s geopolitical strategy. All countries in the region are playing the ‘Vietnam card.’”