Insiders Say Xi Jinping Faces 3 Major Political Crises

One of the threats to Xi is rival CCP factions—princelings seeking reform and hardline ultra-left Maoists—joining forces to oppose him.

Chinese security guards look at military delegates during the speech of Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Communist Party's 19th Congress in Beijing on Oct. 18, 2017. Fred Dufour/AFP via Getty Images

Analysis

Rumors of power struggles among the top ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continue to surface, with signs of their intensity escalating, placing CCP leader Xi Jinping in the midst of several political crises.

According to Yuan Hongbing, a prominent Australia-based Chinese dissident and former Peking University law professor, party insiders told him that three major crises currently threaten Xi: the rise of grassroots “grey organizations”; rival CCP factions joining forces to oppose him; and the purge of key figures within his military’s inner circle.

Surge in Grassroots ‘Grey Organizations’

Yuan cited an internal document from early April issued by the Chinese Ministry of Public Security (MPS) to cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels.

The document reported that in the first quarter of 2025, there had been a sharp increase in participation across China in “grey organizations”—informal civic groups such as alumni associations, veterans’ clubs, and mutual aid groups for migrant workers—that triggered heightened vigilance from the ministry.

Based on the document, the MPS emphasized that members of these groups have, during gatherings, consistently expressed dissatisfaction with current Chinese society and the country’s political governance.

The document further warned that if the U.S.-China tariff war intensifies and the Chinese economy continues to decline, these grey organizations “could very likely transform into political groups that pose a significant threat to social stability.”

Anti-Xi Factions Join Forces

Beyond growing concerns at the societal level, Xi is also facing mounting challenges from two competing factions within the CCP. These two main opposition factions, long at odds ideologically, have found rare common ground in their opposition to Xi’s faction and its current political direction.

The “Princeling” faction—led by Deng Pufang, the son of former CCP leader Deng Xiaoping, and Chen Yuan, the son of former Vice Premier Chen Yun—is calling for a return to Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up policies, Yuan Hongbing told The Epoch Times.

They argue that Xi has strayed from Deng’s strategy of “hide our capabilities and bide our time” in foreign affairs, which has contributed to both economic and diplomatic problems. The faction sharply criticizes the policies under Xi’s leadership and is actively pushing to reverse the current political course.

On the other side is the ultra-left Maoist faction, which continues to operate through legally permitted groups such as the “Red Song Association” and the “Mao Zedong Thought Research Association.” This faction advocates a return to a Cultural Revolution-style path and denounces Xi for “capitulating to imperialism,” which they allege has led to the regime’s current predicament.

Yuan stated that although the two factions are ideologically incompatible, they have nevertheless formed a kind of “strategic alliance” based on their shared rejection of Xi’s current policies.

According to his sources, both factions are separately preparing major political documents, which are expected to be officially released before 2026. Their goal is to prevent Xi from securing another term at the 21st Party Congress in 2027 and to wrest control over the direction of party policy.

China observers noted that the CCP’s history is marked by recurring cycles of internal power struggles, with each leader aiming to neutralize rivals and consolidate control—an approach reflected in both Xi’s leadership and his CCP opponents.

“Even if the Princelings and the ultra-left [faction] target Xi, it’s not to oppose dictatorship or move toward democracy—it’s only to reclaim their own marginalized power. Even if they come to power, as long as the communist authoritarian system remains unchanged, China will not improve,” Wayne Zheng, the Sydney-based representative of the Federation for a Democratic China, told The Epoch Times.

“Under Xi’s tight surveillance and control over all of society, both the Princelings and the ultra-left can hardly make any moves. No matter which faction takes power—even those that appear to be reformers within the system—they cannot cure China’s illness. There is only one true remedy for China: constitutional democracy.”

Weijie Chen, Chairman of the New York Chapter of the Chinese Democracy & Human Rights Alliance, agreed.

“After the end of the CCP, our interim government must return the vote to the Chinese people. Every Chinese citizen must have the right to vote, and every citizen must have the right to stand for election. Only then can we become a truly free, democratic, and constitutional country that rejects one-party dictatorship,” Chen told The Epoch Times.

“We can take inspiration from the U.S. system, particularly its constitution and separation of powers. I believe that, among the systems in the world today, the United States’ model—while not perfect—is currently the most suitable for us Chinese to gradually learn from.”

Xi’s Military ‘Iron Triangle’ Collapses

The most stunning shift that is threatening Xi has occurred within the CCP’s military.

He Weidong, the No. 3 figure in China’s military and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), has made no public appearance since the closing session of the National People’s Congress on March 11.

Miao Hua, former head of the CMC Political Work Department and Xi’s key personnel strategist within the military, was placed under investigation in November 2024. The authorities have yet to publicly announce any further developments regarding his case.

He, Miao, and Xi’s top aide Zhong Shaojun were once referred to as the “iron triangle” of Xi’s military inner circle. Now, with all three either under investigation or effectively sidelined, it signals a major blow to Xi’s power base within the military.

Yuan Hongbin in Sydney, Australia, on March 10, 2025. NTD TV

Cai Shenkun, a China observer, also noted in a post on X that the military anti-corruption campaign has unfolded in two distinct phases: while the first wave after the Two Sessions in 2023 targeted Zhang Youxia, the CMC’s first-ranked vice chairman, investigations since April have focused almost exclusively on Xi’s inner circle.

“By April 2024, the entire situation had completely reversed—those now under investigation are all close allies of Xi Jinping,” Cai wrote.

“First, Xi’s top aide, Zhong Shaojun, was reassigned in April 2024 to serve as political commissar at the National Defense University, effectively stripping him of real power. Second, Miao Hua, Xi’s key personnel strategist within the military, is under investigation. Third, CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong is unquestionably in serious trouble—even if no major issues are found, it’s highly unlikely he’ll ever return to his former position.

“These three individuals—once considered the ‘iron triangle’ of Xi’s military power structure—have either been sidelined or fallen under scrutiny. This signals that the wave of purges sweeping the military is directly aimed at cutting down Xi’s power base within the armed forces.”

According to Yuan’s sources, Miao suffered a psychological breakdown on the first day of his detention and interrogation—he reportedly didn’t sleep at all and confessed to various crimes frantically throughout the night, initially implicating over 80 military personnel in misconduct.

With the cooperation of three of Xi’s secretaries, the number of individuals named eventually ballooned to more than 1,300 military officers, including nearly a hundred generals and lieutenant generals—most of whom were directly promoted by Xi or his close allies.

Yuan added that after hearing the content of Miao’s revelations, Xi’s hair reportedly turned white overnight, a dramatic sign of just how deeply and unexpectedly his power base within the military has been compromised.