Hong Kong’s autonomy has significantly eroded since 2020 as the Chinese regime has tightened its grip on the city, according to a new report.
The report found that Hong Kong’s “high degree of autonomy,” intended to be preserved until 2047, has been undermined since China shifted toward authoritarianism under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping.
The CSIS highlighted three areas in which Hong Kong has experienced a noticeable decline in autonomy: governance, the economy, and civil society.
“There remains some resilience of autonomy, and life in Hong Kong is qualitatively different than in other mainland Chinese jurisdictions,” the report reads. “However, the overall trend is clearly in the direction of further erosion of autonomy across nearly all domains—the legal and political system and civil society, as well as the climate for companies and investors.
“While in every instance it is a mixed picture, in most domains more signs of erosion than resilience were evident, and the general trajectory is toward continued erosion going forward.”
Beijing’s control over Hong Kong has tightened considerably since the mid-2010s, significantly eroding the city’s promised autonomy. While Beijing initially made gradual restrictions after the 1997 handover from the UK, protests escalated in response to these moves, with notable demonstrations in 2012 against changes to the school curriculum and during the 2014 “Umbrella Movement,” in which protesters demanded universal suffrage.
The peak came in 2019, when protests erupted over a proposed extradition law allowing Hong Kong residents to be sent to mainland China for trial. Despite the eventual withdrawal of the law, the harsh suppression fueled greater support for the pro-democracy movement, resulting in pro-democracy candidates winning a majority in the November 2019 district council elections.
The report notes that “the Xi Jinping administration seemed to view the political crisis as a threat to China’s sovereignty over the city and the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on power.”
This prompted Beijing to impose a sweeping national security law in June 2020, which bypassed Hong Kong’s Legislature. The law’s vague definitions of crimes such as subversion and terrorism have been used to suppress opposition, disqualify pro-democracy candidates, limit media freedoms, and silence dissent, thereby fundamentally changing Hong Kong’s political landscape.
The report states that as of February 2023, 291 people had been arrested for allegedly engaging in activities that threaten national security since the law was implemented. It notes that cash bounties have been placed on at least 13 Hong Kong overseas opposition figures and activists, fostering a climate of fear even among those who manage to escape the city.
The report’s authors offer three recommendations for U.S. policymakers to explore.
First, penalties should be enforced on individuals accountable for undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy, thus raising the stakes for Beijing’s actions.
Second, Washington could gradually remove “all the policy exemptions” that grant Hong Kong special treatment compared to China under U.S. law and instead treat it like any other city in mainland China.
Third, Hong Kong’s remaining autonomy from the Chinese regime should be maintained for as long as possible by reinforcing practical engagements between state and non-state actors in the United States and Hong Kong while using targeted punitive measures when needed.
