Economic-Themed Session Skipped as CCP Distracted by Military Instability: Analysis

Delegates applaud during the third plenary session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 12, 2019. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

News Analysis

In a rare move, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is skipping its third plenary session, a vital conference focused on economic policies. Analysts believe the delay is due to military instability and senior officials’ overhauling.

CCP’s Third Plenary Session usually gets much attention as its agenda determines heavyweight policies-making by new party leadership, especially the direction of economic policy.

In October 2022, Xi Jinping secured his third term at the 20th Party Congress. But the Third Plenary Session, which was supposed to be held in October 2023, was skipped without official reason. Beijing didn’t even give a date for the postponed meeting.

The world’s second-largest economy has been facing a recession since the onset of COVID-19 in late 2019. The CCP’s failure to convene the meeting as scheduled garners broader speculations.

Katsuji Nakazawa, an editorial writer for the Nikkei, surmised in a Feb. 22 article that the Third Plenary Session was not held before the end of last year because Xi could not allow his weaknesses to be exposed to the world.

Just one year after Xi reshaped his government, four members of the Central Committee were taken down, including Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Defense Minister Li Shangfu, Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao, and Rocket Force Political Commissar Xu Zhongbo.

Despite the looming crisis brought on by the economic downturn, what is most troubling to Xi is that he must not allow the Third Plenary Session to turn into a chastisement and of “tracking his accountability,” according to Zhong Yuan, political commentator and contributor the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times.

Ms. Zhong cited the reason: “Those senior officials who were removed from their posts are all hand-picked by Xi himself.”

Revamping CCP Military

On Feb. 27, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) released a list of officials disqualified from the NPC representatives. This means they are not eligible to attend this year’s “Two Sessions”—the annual rubber-stamped meetings of the NPC and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)—scheduled to kick off on March 4 and 5 in Beijing.

Among the list, at least two officials are linked to the military purge.

Members of a military delegation arrive for a meeting before the opening ceremony of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 4, 2024. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

One is rocket expert Feng Jiehong, who was the deputy director and chief researcher of the Second Research Institute of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. He was also party secretary and chairman of China Space Sanjiang Group, a primary solid carrier rockets base in China.

Another one, lieutenant general Li Zhizhong was a deputy commander of the Central Theater Commands. The Beijing-stationed military commands direct armed forces in seven districts, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Shaanxi, and Hubei Provinces. He was the head of the CCP’s Army Armament Department in 2021.

CCP’s purge of the Rocket Force can be traced back to last March’s Two Sessions. The purge rippled throughout the Military Commission, the Navy, the Army, the Air Force, the Strategic Support Forces, the Equipment Department, the Rocket Technology Research Institute, and various military-industrial giants.

An analyst for the Cercius Group, a Canadian think tank that focuses on geopolitics, estimated last December, “So far, we have been able to track down around 70 individuals who have been taken away [by the CCP authorities] within the larger frame of the Rocket Force investigation.”

Two Defense Ministers

Former Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s name was recently removed from the list of members of the Central Military Commission on the Ministry of National Defense’s website. According to Internet archive data, his name was still present on Jan. 3.

Last October, Mr. Li was removed from his posts as a state councilor and the minister of defense following his disappearance from public view in August.

The 66-year-old fell from the top of the political heap in less than one year.

It seems that Mr. Li’s predecessor, Wei Fenghe, was also affected by the military purge.

Mr. Wei, 70, was once the first commander of the Rocket Force, a member of the State Council and Minister of Defense. He has been absent from many important occasions, including the reception for the 74th anniversary of the founding of the CCP.

On Jan. 29, Mr. Wei did not appear on CCTV when the Central Military Commission held a New Year’s cultural performance in Beijing to console veteran military leaders;

On Feb. 7, Xi visited more than 130 veterans on the eve of the Chinese New Year. Mr. Wei’s two predecessors were listed in the Xinhua News Agency, but he was omitted.

It is common practice in the CCP for officials under investigation to have their names avoided in official media, for them to physically remain missing from the public eye, with their whereabouts, including whether they are dead or alive, kept a state secret.

Is Qin Gang Dead or Alive? 

Of the four Central Committee members who have fallen from grace, former foreign minister Qin Gang is the only one not from the army, but his downfall is rumored to be military-related.

This photo illustration shows a search for the name of China's former foreign minister Qin Gang on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website in Beijing on July 26, 2023. Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

Mr. Qin became the youngest foreign minister at age 56 in December 2022, and in March of the following year, he was appointed a state councilor and became a deputy state official. However, after only three months, he suddenly vanished.

In December last year, Politico published an article saying that Mr. Qin and the heads of Rocket Force had sold the CCP’s nuclear secrets to Western intelligence agencies and that Andrey Rudenko, the Russian deputy foreign minister, had reported to Xi during his visit to China last June on the information that Russia had in its possession.

The report indicated that Mr. Qin died of suicide or torture late July at a military hospital in Beijing that treats the top leaders.

However, according to the official release of NPC’s Standing Committee, Mr. Qin was disqualified from being a deputy to the NPC as he himself had tendered his “resignation.”

The official wording seems to deny the rumors of Mr. Qin’s death, but given China’s unfathomable political situation, there is no way for the public to know if Mr. Qin is still alive. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the CCP’s revamp of the military is far from over.