As China prepares for the Lunar New Year on Wednesday, millions will travel home to celebrate the biggest holiday with family. The authorities estimate that the Chinese will make nine billion trips during a 40-day holiday travel period starting on Jan. 14.
Much like the Christmas season in the West, the Chinese New Year is a time for holiday travels, shopping, and gifting. However, after two years of economic slowdown, the Chinese increasingly feel the restraint of their wallets.
Chinese state media has reported a peculiar phenomenon this year: while the high-speed rail cars are empty, the regular trains, also known as green trains because of their exterior color, are very crowded.
Green train tickets could be at least 3.5 times cheaper, but the journey is about three times longer. However, many people choose to save money by enduring longer travel and less comfort.
About 80 percent of Chinese consumers identify with having “consumption downgrades,” according to a November 2024 survey jointly conducted by the Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living Shanghai and the School of Advertising at the Communication University of China.
“Consumption downgrades” have become a catchphrase for the past two years, describing the cutbacks Chinese people have made to adjust to the sluggish economy since China lifted the zero-COVID lockdown in December 2022.
The primary reason for reduced spending, selected by 59 percent of respondents in the “consumption downgrade” category, is a decrease in personal or household income or assets. The same survey showed a weaker consumption demand: the overall consumer desire index fell from 74 on a scale of 100 in 2019 to 67.3 in 2024.
Ahead of the New Year, many online videos highlighted this trend of cutting back: empty shopping malls, a lone passenger in a high-speed train, and large numbers of travelers in green trains returning home for family reunions.
Chinese netizens also mentioned a peculiar phenomenon: after going to great lengths to secure a high-speed rail ticket, they expected the train to be packed. Instead, they were surprised to find the carriage nearly empty. One of them said he was going home on a relatively popular line—from Zhuhai in Guangdong Province to his hometown in central China’s Henan Province.
Li confirmed that people are overcrowding green trains and skipping high-speed ones on most train lines. He said this was because many ordinary people struggle financially and can no longer afford the more expensive train tickets.
To create the impression of high demand, the high-speed train system adopted a new marketing strategy this year. It releases a very limited number of tickets to allow officials in the industry to present the image of strong demand, enabling them to present themselves as great performers to their superiors and the public.
Fewer Migrant Workers, Lower Demand
Chinese migrant workers, a group of some 300 million people who leave their rural homes to work in coastal cities, make up a major share of the holiday travel volume. Yet, the economic slowdown meant fewer jobs.“The economic climate in China is tough right now,“ Huang Xin (pseudonym), an executive at a Shanghai-based internet company, told the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times. “Cities like Dongguan and Suzhou, which once hosted many foreign companies, have either seen these companies leave or shut down completely. Many small and medium-sized domestic companies have also closed their factories.”
Wang Kai (pseudonym), a migrant worker from eastern China’s Anhui Province, told the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times, “In the past, working in Shenzhen allowed me to earn enough to go home and reunite with my family for the New Year. But now, after a year of hard work, I haven’t earned much.”
He revealed that people like him are fighting for jobs that pay less than 20 yuan (about $2.75) an hour, and covering basic expenses like food and rent has become a struggle. With little money left at the end of the year, many like him have decided not to go home for the holidays.
Nonetheless, he said his situation wasn’t the worst; he at least had a job to hold onto. Decade-old debt problems in the property market and local governments have finally stalled other sectors, such as construction.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics 2023 Migrant Worker Monitoring Survey Report, 55.57 million migrant workers were employed in the construction industry in 2021. By 2023, that number had fallen to 45.82 million—a decline of nearly 10 million in two short years, or a 17.5 percent drop.
Some Chinese have shared videos of empty shopping malls and food courts on social media, asking, “Where is the holiday festive spirit?”
