China’s Migrant Workers Look For Work Outside Construction Amidst Dismal Real Estate Market

Migrant workers wait for job opportunities on the roadside near signs advertising their skills in Shenyang, Liaoning Province, China on Feb. 6, 2023. STR / AFP

News Analysis

Amidst the ongoing decline in the Chinese property market, migrant workers are the most heavily impacted. In 2023, 6.5 million workers migrated out of construction, hoping to find steady work in other sectors. The land market, closely related to the real estate market, is also cooling down.

The China Real Estate Information and Consultancy Services Company (CRIC) recently released data for the first four months of 2024, showing a drop in sales for China’s top 100 real estate enterprises. In April, these companies achieved sales of $43 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 12.9 percent and a year-on-year decrease of 44.9 percent. Monthly performance remained at historically low levels.

According to historical data from CRIC Research Center, the monthly sales turnover of the top one hundred real estate companies in April 2021 was $144 billion, $60 billion in 2022, and $79 billion in 2023. The current sales turnover of the top one hundred real estate companies is less than one-third of what it was three years ago.

Thus far in 2024, the top one hundred real estate companies achieved cumulative sales of $152 billion from January to April, a 46.8 percent decrease from the previous year.

Land acquisition is also an indicator of the condition of the real estate industry. The sluggish real estate market naturally affects land sales. According to Caixin Network, the investment strategy of the vast majority of real estate companies is currently “production based on sales,” and are extremely cautious about acquiring more land.

Everbright Securities tracked ten currently operating real estate companies, including Poly Development and Vanke A. The institution’s report released on April 23 showed that in the first quarter of 2024, the total land acquisition amount of these ten companies was $5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4 percent; the overall land acquisition-to-sales ratio was only 10.8 percent, a year-on-year reduction of 1.2 percentage points.

Workers Migrate To Avoid Unemployment

On May 1, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its “2023 Migrant Worker Monitoring Report,” showing that the total number of migrant workers nationwide in 2023 reached 297.53 million, marking a 1.91 million uptick from the previous year, translating to a growth of 0.6 percent. Notably, the count of local migrant workers stood at 120.95 million, witnessing a decline of 2.77 million from the preceding year, reflecting a 2.2 percent decrease. Conversely, the number of migrant workers laboring outside their hometowns surged to 176.58 million, rising by 4.68 million from the previous year, signifying a 2.7 percent increase. By year-end, urban areas housed 128.16 million migrant workers.

Recent data also indicates a migration shift towards the central and western regions. In 2023, the number of migrant workers employed in the eastern region totaled 152.77 million, marking a reduction of 1.7 million from the previous year, reflecting a 1.1 percent decline. Conversely, the tally reached 69.82 million in the central region, surging by 2.11 million from the prior year, indicating a 3.1 percent increase. Similarly, the western region saw an increase, with 65.52 million workers, up by 1.16 million from the preceding year, marking a 1.8 percent rise. The northeast region also observed growth, with 8.72 million workers, escalating by 290,000 from the previous year, indicating a 3.4 percent uptick.

Data from the NBS report concerning migrant workers’ industries of engagement in 2023 show that 53.8 percent were in the tertiary sector, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year. Conversely, 45.5 percent were engaged in the secondary industry, experiencing a 2.3 percentage point decrease from the preceding year. Among these figures, the proportion of migrant workers in the construction industry dipped from 17.7 percent in the prior year to 15.4 percent, marking a 2.3 percentage point decline and ranking highest in the industry downturn. This estimation suggests a loss of 6.5 million migrant workers from the construction industry in 2023, exacerbating the previous year’s decrease of approximately 3.25 million, the most substantial decline in the past five years.

Wang He, a political analyst based in the United States, told The Epoch Times that “the Chinese real estate economy represents a distorted development that has hijacked China’s economic growth, local fiscal revenue, bank loans, and residents’ property.”

He further believes that migrant workers, integral to this economy, are undoubtedly grappling with severe challenges amid this “flood.” “From the current perspective, China’s manufacturing development trajectory seems geared towards exclusion rather than absorption of migrant workers. Thus, the issue of unemployment among migrant workers cannot be fundamentally addressed by the CCP,” he concluded.