China Is Making It Harder to Tell Exercise From Invasion: US Space Forces Commander

The increasing complexity of China’s military operations makes distinguishing an exercise from an invasion difficult, a space force commander says.

A Chinese jet fighter flies above a closed circuit television (CCTV) camera and buildings on Pingtan Island, the closest point in China to the main island of Taiwan, in China's southeast Fujian Province, on Jan. 13, 2024. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images

The Chinese regime is intentionally making it difficult to tell the difference between a military exercise and what could one day be an invasion, according to the U.S. Indo–Pacific Space Forces commander, Brig. Gen. Anthony Mastalir.

Speaking at the Air and Space Forces Association (AFA) Warfare Symposium panel in Colorado on March 4, Mastalir called this tactic a “complexity,” stating that it was “clearly by design.” 

“It is clear in the increasing complexity with which the [People’s Liberation Army] exercises are done in a way that it becomes very difficult, and will become very difficult, to discern an exercise from an invasion,” Mastalir told reporters.

“We have begun to see the space piece integrated into some of that, not as much early on, but more recently.”

Mastalir said the Indo–Pacific region is a “uniquely challenging environment” because of China’s advancements in space aviation.

According to Mastalir, China’s progress requires the United States and its allies to shield their military contingents in the area from a potential “space-enabled attack.”

He said that “countering adversary kill-webs”—a military capability of synchronizing more than one layer of detection using satellites, aircraft, naval vessels, and ground forces—is necessary to defend Indo–Pacific allies.

He noted that deploying the division’s personnel, or “Guardians,” in the region is high on his priority list and that he intends to increase the number to around 80 units throughout the region by the summer of 2025.

Mastalir was not the first to speak publicly on the matter. In April 2024, Gen. Stephen Whiting of the U.S. Space Command told reporters, after a tour of Japan and South Korea, that China’s progress in the sphere was “breathtakingly fast.”

Whiting said that the Chinese regime was working on “counter-space weapons” with the intent of impeding U.S. space endeavors.

China’s Space Race

The Department of Defense’s 2024 Annual Report to Congress said that China is developing anti-satellite missiles, co-orbital satellites—which are vehicles that can be maneuvered in space to attack other satellites—and directed-energy systems weaponizing lasers or high-energy beams, the purpose of which is to deny other entities the ability to operate.

It said the communist regime draws on military and civilian institutions, such as universities, for its space endeavors.

The report further highlights the use of dual-function technologies—serving the average citizen’s needs and then pivoting to a military role—that draws from its burgeoning commercial space sector.

An analysis published by the French think tank Institut Montaigne in February notes that Chinese companies—including Huawei, Xiaomi, and BYD—use satellite technology in smartphones, telecommunications, and electric vehicles.

The report points out that Beijing’s military objectives first drove China’s space industry, and “only later did space exploration become a catalyst for its progress on the international stage.”

China sought partnerships with other countries to enhance its space capacities. According to a June 2023 report by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Beijing has penned space-related agreements with 46 countries.

In 2023 alone, the Chinese military launched 67 rockets carrying around 200 satellites into space, according to the Pentagon.

“They’re also using space to make their terrestrial forces—their army, their navy, their marine corps, their air force—more precise,” Whiting said in April 2024.