U.S. policymakers should work with allies, particularly those in Southeast Asia, to counter the Beijing regime’s growing geopolitical clout, according to a recent report.
In 1992, Beijing had more influence in 33 countries, compared to the United States in 160 countries, according to the report. Then, for three successive U.S. administrations—under Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama—the net foreign influence of the United States dropped, before the trend was reversed under former President Donald Trump, despite Trump’s well-publicized withdrawals from a number of multilateral organizations.
The U.S. net influence dropped to 158 countries by the end of the Clinton administration in 2001. That number took a significant decline during the Bush administration, as a net total of 17 nations became more susceptible to Beijing’s influence, bringing the U.S. tally down to 141 by 2009.
Beijing’s influence grew by a net increase of four countries during the Obama administration, pushing the U.S. total to 137. However, the Trump administration reversed the slide, capturing a net increase of three countries to bring America’s sphere of influence back to 140. The report didn’t identify the countries that changed their alliance.
During the same time period, the Chinese communist regime saw the net number of countries more susceptible to its influence grow to 67 in 2012 from 33 in 1989 under former Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Since 2012, the year current Chinese leader Xi Jinping took power, Beijing’s tally of influence by the end of 2020 leveled off to 61 countries.
Even though the United States has maintained a sizable lead in global influence relative to China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has made significant gains in many parts of the world.
“Most notable is the erosion of U.S. influence relative to Chinese influence across nearly every global region [by 2020],” the report states.
“Chinese influence outweighs U.S. influence across much of Africa and Southeast Asia and has increased in former Soviet states. Chinese influence has also eroded the U.S. advantages in South America, Western Europe, and East Asia.”
Indonesia was listed as one of the countries that are now more open to Beijing’s influence. According to the report, the Southeast Asian country favored the United States from 1960 to 2010 before China took over as the more influential country in 2011. Other countries include Pakistan, Ghana, and Ethiopia.
“In each of these places, China’s economic tools of statecraft have been responsible for most of these gains,” the report states.
The report offered several recommendations for U.S. policymakers; in particular, pushing Japan to become a formal member of the “Five Eyes” alliance and working closely with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Other recommendations include negotiating a preferential trade agreement between the United States and the ASEAN and maintaining security ties with Indonesia and Thailand.