China Expands Nuclear Arsenal ‘Faster Than Any Other Country’: Report

China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles are seen during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, on Oct. 1, 2019. (Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images)

China is in the process of significantly expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal at a pace that might lead to having more intercontinental ballistic missiles than the United States or Russia in the next decade, according to a recent report.

According to an annual arms report published on June 17 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between January 2023 and January 2024, China increased its nuclear stockpile to 500 warheads from 410.

“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Hans M. Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, in a statement. “But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states, there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.”

The report noted that “for the first time, China may also now be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime.” The number of China’s warheads deployed is relatively small, 24, or 5 percent of its stockpile.

Despite this, China’s total nuclear arsenal is expected to remain smaller than those of the United States and Russia. By comparison, the United States had 5,044 warheads, and Russia had 5,580 as of January 2024. Washington deployed 1,770 warheads, while Moscow deployed 1,710.

China’s nuclear arsenal size reported by SIPRI is similar to a 2023 Pentagon report, which estimated that China had over 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023. The Pentagon also projected that Beijing might have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 and continue growing the stockpile through 2035.

Last year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Beijing did not cooperate with international norms and laws regarding nuclear proliferation and would not be honest with the international community about the extent of its nuclear expansion.

“China is rapidly growing its nuclear arsenal without any transparency about its capabilities,” he said.

Earlier this month, Pranay Vaddi, the top U.S. National Security Council arms control official, said the United States may seek to deploy more nuclear weapons in response to stockpile expansion from China, Russia, and North Korea. These countries, according to Mr. Vaddi, “are all expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck pace, showing little or no interest in arms control.”

“We may reach a point in the coming years where an increase from currently deployed numbers is required,” Mr. Vaddi said during a June 7 meeting of the Arms Control Association. “If that day comes, it will result in a determination that more nuclear weapons are required to deter our adversaries and protect the American people and our allies and partners.”

The senior White House aide’s remarks follow the publication of a report late last year by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, which recommended that the United States expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal to deter increasing aggression by China and Russia.

“Given current threat trajectories, our nation will soon encounter a fundamentally different global setting than it has ever experienced: we will face a world where two nations possess nuclear arsenals on par with our own,” the report reads.

Nuclear Arsenals Are Strengthened Globally

The SIPRI report found that nuclear arsenals are being strengthened globally. Out of an estimated 12,121 warheads worldwide in January 2024, about 2,100 were deployed “in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles,” and around 9,585 were stored in military stockpiles for possible deployment.

There are nine nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

“While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads,” SIPRI Director Dan Smith said. “This trend seems likely to continue and probably accelerate in the coming years and is extremely concerning.”

The report also said that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Israel-Hamas war weakened nuclear diplomacy in 2023, noting that Russia suspended the last nuclear arms control treaty with the United States in January 2023.

“We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” Mr. Smith said. “There are numerous sources of instability—political rivalries, economic inequalities, ecological disruption, an accelerating arms race. The abyss is beckoning and it is time for the great powers to step back and reflect. Preferably together.”

Andrew Thornebrooke contributed to this report.