China Courts Southeast Asia Amid US Trade Tensions, but Analysts See Limited Impact

With substantial economic assistance and market access, ’mere state visits won’t change the course of the region,' an analyst said.

Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary To Lam (C) attends a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the office of the Party Central Committee in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 14, 2025. Nhac Nguyen/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has embarked on his first overseas trip of 2025, courting three Southeast Asian nations amid heightened trade tensions with the United States.

However, analysts said breakthroughs are unlikely.

“Xi Jinping’s trip is aimed at restoring confidence among regional partners and to show that China is far from isolated,” Sun Kuo-hsiang, professor at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, told The Epoch Times before Xi’s arrival in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 14.

But the reality is a bit more complex.

“Southeast Asian countries tend to steer clear of picking sides,“ Sun said. ”They appear friendly to China on the surface, but hold reservations beneath that facade.”

He said that for China to make a real impact, “it must provide substantial economic assistance and market access; otherwise, mere state visits won’t change the course of the region.”

After spending two days in Vietnam, Xi arrived in Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur International Airport on the evening of April 15 for a three-day trip. Cambodia will be his final stop.

This trip comes amid rising tensions between China and the United States after a series of tit-for-tat tariff increases last week.

Analysts said this Southeast Asia trip follows a familiar pattern for the Chinese leader, who often embarks on foreign visits after the annual meeting of China’s rubber-stamp legislature in March. In 2024, he began his overseas travels in France, while in 2023, after assuming his record-breaking third term as China’s head of state, he chose Russia for his first overseas stop.

Huang Chung-ting is an expert on China–Southeast Asia relations at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank based in Taipei, Taiwan, that is funded by the Taiwanese government.

According to him, “This trip indeed carries a different meaning, given the high tariffs the United States has imposed on relevant countries, including China.”

Among the destinations on Xi’s itinerary, Vietnam and Cambodia are at the top of the U.S. reciprocal tariff list, facing levies of 46 percent and 49 percent, respectively, although these tariffs have been postponed until July.

Huang told The Epoch Times that such hefty tariffs appear to be a warning message.

Huang said that if these countries continue to cooperate with China “to help Chinese products go a long way into the United States under different origin labels and circumvent U.S. tariffs,” they might also face increased levies.

“While Xi Jinping seeks to draw these Southeast Asian countries closer through his visits, they must also carefully consider the potential risks of aligning too closely with China,” he said.

Vietnam

During his first stop in Hanoi, Xi was hosted by Vietnam’s top leaders, including To Lam, general secretary of the country’s ruling communist party.

On April 14, after their first engagements, Xi and Lam witnessed the signing of 45 memorandums of cooperation between China and Vietnam. According to statements from both sides, these agreements span multiple areas, including supply chains, artificial intelligence, and agricultural products.

The Vietnamese government said in a separate statement that the deal package includes agreements on railway and road infrastructure collaborations, such as documentation for an $8 billion railway project that was adopted in February. Beijing has not released details regarding the railway construction or the specifics of any agreements.

Beijing and Hanoi also issued a joint statement on April 15, reaffirming their commitment to strengthening their partnership and supporting a multilateral trade system centered on the World Trade Organization, among other things.

Despite this show of solidarity, analysts said they believe that the relationship between the two communist neighbors may not be as close as it seems.

“It is unlikely Vietnam will fully align with Xi Jinping’s expectations,” Huang said before Xi’s departure for Malaysia.

An indication of that is the fact that Vietnam was among the first nations to reach out to U.S. President Donald Trump for tariff negotiations, Huang said.

On April 4, Lam and Trump had a phone conversation during which they agreed to explore options for tariff removal. Then, on April 8, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced that he had requested a delay on the hefty tariffs introduced by Trump on April 2 and had pledged to ramp up purchases of U.S. goods in return.

Huang said Vietnam is particularly concerned about its trade relationship with the United States—which is its largest export market and key security ally—a sentiment shared by other Southeast Asian nations.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in the Oval Office on May 31, 2017. Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty Images

“It’s no longer just about appeasing Beijing or fearing wrath,“ he said. ”Rather, these countries are weighing the implications for their exports and economic growth. They are asking themselves, ‘Will there be issues ahead?’”

Yeh Yao-Yuan, a professor at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, told The Epoch Times that besides trade, territorial disputes in the South China Sea also influence how Vietnam and other Asian nations approach Beijing.

The Chinese regime claims nearly the entire South China Sea, a region where Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan also assert their rights over reefs, islands, and atolls.

If Beijing continues its aggressive pursuit of territorial claims in the South China Sea, it “will drive its neighbors further away,” Yeh said.

Trump said later on April 14 that discussions between Xi and Lam had focused on how to harm Washington.

“I don’t blame China,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I don’t blame Vietnam. That’s a lovely meeting ... trying to figure out, ‘How do we screw the United States of America?’”

Yi Ru and Luo Ya contributed to this report.