The Census Department unveiled its latest set of population projection figures on Aug. 15, estimating that the elderly population in Hong Kong will reach 2.74 million by 2046, accounting for 36 percent of the total population. This means that more than one out of every three individuals in Hong Kong will be elderly.
According to the Census Department, based on the baseline population projection, the Hong Kong Resident Population will reach 8.19 million by mid-2046, an increase of 780,000 from the 7.41 million recorded in mid-2021. The higher and lower projections are 8.96 million and 7.76 million, respectively.
The department noted that the number of deaths would significantly rise in line with the aging population trend and a decrease in the birth rate. This is expected to result in a natural population decrease (deaths minus births) of 750,000 and a net population inflow (in-migration minus out-migration) of 1.52 million.
The Census Department indicated that with the post-war baby boomers entering their senior years and average life expectancy at birth continuing to rise for both genders, the population is anticipated to keep aging. The department projected that the elderly population aged 65 and above will nearly double within 25 years, going from 1.45 million in 2021 to 2.74 million in 2046, accounting for 36 percent of the total population, up from 20.5 percent. This means that more than one out of every three individuals in Hong Kong will be an elderly person.
The birth rate is expected to remain at a low level in Hong Kong, but the Census Department estimates a slight increase. The total fertility rate (the number of children born to a woman over her lifetime per 1,000 women) is projected to rise from 772 in 2021 to 938 by 2046.
Additionally, the Census Department estimates that in the next two decades, Hong Kong will see 890,000 One-way Permit holders, 510,000 non-permanent residents arriving through various schemes, and 240,000 foreign domestic workers.
As for the labor force, the Census Department projects that Hong Kong’s total labor force will increase from 3.54 million in 2021 to 3.66 million in 2038 before dropping to 3.58 million by 2046. The labor force participation rate is expected to decrease from 57.2 percent in 2021 to 51.6 percent by 2046.
