Beijing denied that it has plans to attack Taiwan in 2027 or 2035 at the U.S.–China Summit in San Francisco last week, and the United States and China agreed to restart military communications.
Taiwanese experts believe that the CCP may not attack Taiwan (Republic of China) in the short term due to lack of capability and internal chaos, but is making preparations for it.
Li Zhengxiu, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation, told The Epoch Times that the time points for the CCP’s planned attack on Taiwan in 2027 or 2035 are basically not set by the CCP, but are the speculations of the U.S. military or U.S. think tank scholars.
He said that the CCP currently has no plans to attack Taiwan, and it has no reason to use military force against Taiwan. If they launch an amphibious landing operation, judging from the current military strength of the CCP, they have no chance of winning. However, “whether it is the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, etc., they are preparing for the possibility of conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait. The CCP is also preparing for it.”
When President Joe Biden held talks with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco, the communist regime scaled back its military activity around Taiwan. However, after the summit, the Chinese communist regime’s military resumed air incursions over the Taiwan Strait.
During the Biden–Xi meeting, the United States and CCP had very different views on the Taiwan issue. The United States was firmly opposed to unilaterally changing the status quo. The CCP denied that it had plans to attack Taiwan in 2027 or 2035, but still mentioned the conditions for using military force, saying that “at a certain date, at some point we need to move towards broader solutions.”
Inadequate Amphibious Combat Capability
Shu Hsiao-Huang, an associate researcher at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security, told The Epoch Times that the CCP has been increasing its naval and air activities around Taiwan and is more or less for possible war preparation. “However, it’s not easy to actually launch an amphibious military operation across the Taiwan Strait. The CCP’s military currently lacks capabilities in this area.”He added that once there is a head-on confrontation with the United States in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, they are at a disadvantage.
“It can be seen from the history of previous wars that the CCP relies more on human wave attack tactics. If there is a war in the East China Sea or the South China Sea, it will be a battle over sea and in the air, which is dominated by technology. The human wave tactics that the CCP is accustomed to won’t work at all,” Su Tze-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said. ”If unfortunately a hot war really happens in the future, the probability of the CCP’s failure is close to more than 90 percent.”
CCP Military Internal Problems
Mr. Shu said that there are many unknown factors in the CCP’s military morale, and the authorities’ anti-corruption will have an impact on them. “We must pay special attention to this impact. Will there be situations where military do not listen to the central command and then do their own thing? In that case, it is likely to cause regional conflicts by accidents.”Currently, Xi is purging the CCP’s military. Mr. Li pointed out that the generals with some experience at various levels were mostly purged, the new generals had less experience, making it even more difficult to guarantee the CCP military’s combat capabilities.
