Burma’s Civil War Raises Concerns for Beijing

A missile fired from a Burmese military base in Lashio township, northern Shan State on Oct. 28, 2023. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Since the Three Brotherhood Alliance recently launched its offensive against the ruling junta in Burma (also known as Myanmar), more armed groups have joined the fight. Meanwhile, China is concerned about the ongoing conflict due to its significant infrastructure investments in Burma.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance—comprising the Burma National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA, also known as the Kokang Alliance Army), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA)—said in its Oct. 27 action statement that it would unite all revolutionary organizations to overthrow the dictatorial rule of the Burma military junta and root out telecom fraudsters, including fraud centers and their protectors, both in the China-Burma border areas and nationwide.

A United Nations report released in August estimates that hundreds of thousands of people from around the world have been trafficked to Southeast Asia and coerced into participating in online scams.

These victims, many of whom were either swindled or kidnapped from neighboring countries, including China, were ensnared in Burma’s fraud centers, enduring torture, arbitrary detention, sexual violence, forced labor, and various human rights abuses, the report revealed.

The MNDAA, the leading force of the ongoing offensive—dubbed “Operation 1027”—further declared in its “Letter to the People of the Nation” on Oct. 27 that it aims to return the nation to the path of democracy and the rule of law and to establish a new federal state with a high degree of autonomy for all ethnic groups and people’s sovereignty.

The military government has lost control of most of the border area with China, as well as some important towns in the western region.

The junta forces have been retreating during the two weeks of fighting. As of Nov. 10, the allied forces claimed to have captured at least 133 military bases and four towns, including Chinshwehaw and Hsenwi, which have border checkpoints, according to the blogging platform Kokang Information Network.

The government army is unable to send reinforcements, let alone regain lost ground. The commander of the Shan State Army, Aung Kyaw Lwin, was reportedly killed. He was one of hundreds of officers and soldiers killed and the highest-ranking officer to die in combat since the military coup.

Elated by the series of victories, the National Unity Government (NUG), the main organization opposing Burma’s military rule, promised that once the military government fell, it would allow the rebel alliance to participate in negotiations for Burma’s new federal structure.

Burma’s Civil War Threatens Beijing’s Interests

Burma is part of the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also known as “One Belt, One Road”), with its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor being a key component of this project. The 1,056-mile corridor comprises railways, trade zones, and other large-scale infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars. The corridor is crucial to the CCP’s energy security strategy.

On Oct. 26, China and Burma held a BRI symposium in Yangon, attended by about 100 people.

Immediately after the fighting broke out, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sent its minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, to Burma on Oct. 31, followed by Nong Rong, assistant minister of foreign affairs, a few days later.

Burmese state-owned television network MRTV reported that Mr. Wang met with Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, who heads Burma’s government, to discuss the synchronized attacks, characterized by the broadcaster as aiming to undermine peace and stability in northeastern Burma.

Burma’s importance to China lies in its access to the Bay of Bengal and the wider Indian Ocean, according to U.S. current affairs magazine The Diplomat. By transporting oil and gas to Yunnan Province through pipelines running through Burma, China has partially allayed its concerns about its heavy reliance on the narrow Strait of Malacca. The strait is an important route for oil and gas shipments from the Middle East to China and is highly vulnerable to maritime blockades.

According to an analysis by the United States Institute of Peace in July this year, the CCP has expanded its influence in Burma by supporting the country’s military government and some powerful ethnic armed groups.

However, “Beijing will eventually need [to] respond to the reality that its support for Min Aung Hlaing’s regime will not only fail to stabilize its geo-strategic investments but will inflict greater harm on Chinese nationals targeted by Chinese criminal groups now running countless cyber-crime centers across the country,” the report reads.

“Given that these criminal networks are from China, and given Beijing’s support for the Myanmar military regime and other militias which protect them, much of the onus for this global security crisis is on Beijing.”