Beijing’s New Regulation on Medical Supply Part of War Preparation, Experts Say

The Chinese regime has long been preparing for war, but it’s still too risky for it to launch an invasion of Taiwan, experts say.

China’s Shandong aircraft carrier is seen sailing near Taiwan on March 31, 2025. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense via AP

Beijing’s new regulation on medical supplies for the military is part of the Chinese regime’s ongoing preparation for war, but it doesn’t necessarily mean an attack on Taiwan is imminent, experts from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) said on April 15.

On April 5, Beijing published updated regulations for medical supplies for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) requiring the military to implement a system of medical supply reserves to maintain war preparedness.

The new regulation, which is set to take effect on June 1, prohibits the appropriation of military medical supplies for civilian use. In cases of a significant disaster, epidemic, or other emergencies, the transfer of medical supplies for civilian use will require the approval of the PLA’s central Logistic Support Department.

Shen Ming-Shih, a research fellow at INDSR and former director of the institute’s Division of National Security Research, said the new regulation is the latest in a series of moves by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to prepare for a war of attrition similar to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war.

Managing medical supplies is “very important” in war, Shen told The Epoch Times, because the military will need large quantities of drugs, blood, antibiotics, and other medical supplies, including foreign-produced supplies.

“To avoid shortages, [the PLA] must be well-stocked before any war,” he said.

Wang Shiow-Wen, an associate research fellow at the INDSR’s Division of Chinese Politics, Military, and Warfighting Concepts, said the PLA could be responding to U.S. tariffs by preparing for any potential impact on China’s medical supply imports.

Timeline

While the CCP has never ruled Taiwan, “unification” with the self-governed island has been Beijing’s long-term goal, and the regime has never ruled out taking the island by force.

Since Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te took office in 2024, the CCP has stepped up its rhetoric against so-called Taiwan separatists and declared that “diehard” supporters of Taiwan independence can be punishable by death.

The Chinese regime has also ramped up military and patrol activities in the Taiwan Strait in recent years, sending PLA and coast guard aircraft and ships to the strait nearly every day.

In 2023, CIA Director William Burns cited U.S. intelligence in concluding that CCP leader Xi Jinping had ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

In 2024, Yuan Hongbing, a former law professor at China’s prestigious Peking University, which has connections in the upper echelons of the CCP, told The Epoch Times that Party leaders were advised to establish a strategy to “solve the Taiwan issue by 2027” to provide “political guarantee” for the CCP’s 21st National Congress.

In his keynote address in February at the Honolulu Defense Forum, Adm. Samuel J. Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, described the PLA’s military drills around Taiwan as “rehearsals for the forced unification” rather than “exercises.”

While some experts question the CCP’s willingness or capability to attack Taiwan, especially amid an apparent purge within the PLA, some have begun to think that the regime will make such a move sooner than expected.

Taiwanese retired Maj. Gen. Yu Tsung-chi previously told The Epoch Times that while the arrests of Xi’s “staunchest supporters in the army” do indicate signs of his power being weakened, there is the possibility that the apparent purges are smoke and mirrors that cover up preparations for a real attack on Taiwan.

Hung Tzu-Chieh, an associate research fellow and deputy director at INDSR’s Division of Chinese Politics, Military, and Warfighting Concepts, said the PLA has been preparing for war, including by conducting drills in the Taiwan Strait and regulating its medical supplies; still, he said, it doesn’t appear to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan this year.

“Xi Jinping puts lots of emphasis on strengthening the PLA’s warfighting capabilities, but the focus is not entirely on Taiwan,” he told The Epoch Times, noting that Xi also needs a stronger PLA to maintain power and to help promote the CCP’s “dream of a strong country and strong military.”

Hung said he doesn’t believe that the PLA is ready because of the dissolution of its Strategic Support Force (SSF) in 2024.

In April 2024, the PLA split the SSF into Aerospace, Cyberspace, and Information Support forces.

Hung said the PLA would need time before the new forces could run well.

“And with corruption within the PLA, the possibility of an attack on Taiwan in six months is extremely low,” Hung said. He was responding to an April 9 article on the defense analysis website 19FortyFive citing unnamed intelligence sources who said they now believe that an invasion could happen within the next six months.

In March, Beijing stated that it was ready to fight a “trade war or any type of war” that the United States wants after the Trump administration began increasing tariffs on imports from China, prompting speculation about the CCP’s plans.

Wang said this is not a good time for the PLA to attack Taiwan because it would be defeated by Washington.

If pressure from the Trump administration made the CCP launch an attack on Taiwan, Beijing could “fall right into an American trap,” she said.

She said it’s important to keep watching PLA leaders who don’t believe that now is the time to attack Taiwan.

“When they think the time has come, they will launch into action,” she said.

Protracted War

To prepare for a Chinese invasion or blockade, Taiwan’s military has been practicing its rapid response capabilities, which might enable an apparent Chinese drill around the island to turn into a blitzkrieg.

In October 2024, Taipei announced plans to maintain Taiwan’s food supply if a Chinese blockade cut off shipping to the island.

Shen said the chance of a quick siege seems low because the Russia–Ukraine war showed that troop movements can be detected by intelligence forces.

It’s “increasingly likely” that an attack on Taiwan would turn into a “protracted war,” he said.

“That’s why the CCP set up a provincial office of defense mobilization, increased its gold reserve, and [allegedly] banned high-ranking officials from holding overseas assets to avoid the impact of sanctions,” Shen said.

Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at INDSR and director of the institute’s Division of Defense Strategy and Resources, previously told The Epoch Times that a blockade would also be risky to the CCP. A long-term blockade would likely provoke intervention because “no country would tolerate” a blockade of one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, he said.

Luo Ya contributed to this report.